Following a deadly cyberattack on the Shiite group's communications, Lebanese authorities are blaming Israel, which is already preparing for a possible threat from the north.
Eight people were killed and 2,750 others injured in a mass pager explosion in Lebanon on Tuesday, according to Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abyad. Hospitals in Beirut and other cities are overwhelmed and the Health Ministry has called on all available medical personnel to respond to the emergency.
Among the wounded were Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, as well as members of the Shiite group Hezbollah. A spokesman for the organisation, who spoke anonymously to Reuters, said: described The incident as “The biggest security breach” The group has been fighting since the conflict in Gaza began almost a year ago.
According to a source familiar with the situation that speak According to The Wall Street Journal, the pagers that exploded were from a new batch that Hezbollah recently received. A representative of the group revealed that hundreds of fighters possess such devices and suggested that malware could have caused the overheating and explosions. Some members reported that they felt the pagers heat up and disposed of them before they detonated.
It is not yet clear what triggered this series of explosions, but Lebanese authorities believe that Israel is behind a cyber attack. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry characterized Explosions like a “dangerous and deliberate Israeli escalation” claiming that they were “accompanied by Israeli threats to expand the war into Lebanon on a large scale.”
In response, Israel has raised its alert level at all ports. “Israeli security officials believe Hezbollah is planning military action, prompting an urgent meeting of senior officials at the Defense Ministry to explore options for a possible escalation in the north,” noted the Israeli publication Haaretz.
But is West Jerusalem prepared for such a conflict?
A long-standing threat
In 2006, Hezbollah, an Iran-linked militia in Lebanon, kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, prompting an IDF response and sparking what is now known as the Second Lebanon War.
At that time, addressing the Knesset, then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert explained Israel needed to go to war to protect itself from Hezbollah's constant rocket attacks and vowed to eliminate the group's militants and destroy its infrastructure.
In 34 days of fighting, the Israeli air force flew some 12,000 combat sorties over Lebanon, leaving behind a tail of destructionLarge parts of Lebanese infrastructure were destroyed in the conflict, including bridges, roads, water and wastewater treatment plants, ports, schools, hospitals, private homes and even Beirut International Airport.
Hezbollah was Treaty It was also a severe blow. Of the 1,200 casualties of that war, at least 270 were Hezbollah fighters. The group’s ammunition depots were damaged and its launching bases and military installations were partially or completely destroyed. Israel presented it as a victory, but Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of Alma, an independent research and education center specializing in Israel’s security challenges, says victory was far from close at hand.
“Since 2006 we have not been able to defeat Hezbollah and in fact it continued to fire rockets until the last day of the war… there was a lot of destruction in Lebanon but the feeling was that we should have continued.”
But Israel did not. On August 14, a United Nations-brokered ceasefire went into effect. Less than a month later, Israel lifted its naval blockade of Lebanon, and two years after the outbreak of the conflict, the bodies of the two Israeli soldiers were returned to Israel and buried. The chapter of animosity between Israel and Hezbollah did not end with their burial, however. Hezbollah continued to arm itself, preparing for another confrontation.
The capabilities of the parties in conflict
As of today, and according to EstimatesThe Shiite militia possesses more than 200,000 rockets and missiles, 5,000 of which are long-range rockets, capable of reaching areas up to 700 kilometers from their launch site; 5,000 are medium-range rockets capable of flying up to 200 kilometers, 65,000 are short-range rockets with a range of up to 80 kilometers, while 150,000 are mortars.
In addition, Hezbollah also boasts hundreds of anti-tank, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, as well as 2,500 drones, a sophisticated tunnel systemmuch deeper than those used by Hamas in Gaza, and most importantly, some 50,000 regular service fighters and 50,000 reservists, both groups well trained and well equipped.
Zehavi says Hezbollah was able to achieve this power simply because Israel looked the other way.
“For 18 years, no one (in Israel) controlled (the situation). Meanwhile, Iran was very involved in this. (In this way, Hezbollah was able to) smuggle ammunition from Tehran to Syria, or manufacture (weapons) in Syria and then bring them to Lebanon, so I am not at all surprised that (the group's military power) has grown so significantly.”
Over the years, Israel has sought to undermine Hezbollah's ability to arm itself. Various reports suggested that Israel was behind attacks on convoys carrying munitions in Syria, airports, research centres and bases. But Eyal Zisser, vice-rector of Tel Aviv University and one of the most renowned experts on the Middle East, says these attacks have been largely symbolic.
“Hezbollah does not really have any forces, units or capabilities in Syria. It uses Syria as a territory to transfer weapons from Iran to Lebanon. In the past, Hezbollah hoped to use Syrian territory against Israel, but the bulk, 99% of its forces, are in Lebanon. Therefore, Israel’s attacks in Syria are not that critical or that important; they clearly do not have a significant impact.”
In the current confrontation that began on October 7, 2023 following Hamas' deadly attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli incursion into Gaza, Israel attacked thousands of Hezbollah targets. In the first six months, more than 1,400 have been attacked from the air and 3,300 from the ground. Hundreds of Hezbollah operatives have been killed. delicateincluding 50 high-ranking commanders.
Zehavi says their elimination was significant given the fact that they possessed knowledge, connections and experience, but that did not harm Hezbollah's ability to continue fighting.
And now, with the drums of war beating louder in the region, both experts agree that a confrontation with Hezbollah will be different from those experienced by Israel before.
“First of all, the terrain will be different,” Zehavi said. “It is much more complicated than Gaza, it has hills and valleys. It is more difficult to maneuver. It will be easier for Hezbollah operatives to hide there. (Secondly), Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure is much larger, and (thirdly) ammunition is hidden in towns and cities, but since Lebanon is larger, it would be possible for the population to leave areas of a war zone (to protect themselves),” he added.
Another challenge is the rocket barrages that Hezbollah would launch against Israel. According to some estimates, on the first day of Hamas' attack on Israel, the group fired 4,300 rockets. However, under Hezbollah, the daily number of rockets, missiles and drones promises to exceed 10,000, and the question is whether Israel will be prepared to deal with it.
In addition to the Iron Dome missile interception system, which proved its worth during Israel's wars, the country has also developed other means aimed at protecting the country. David Sling is one such technology; another, using a laser, will become operational soon, and the IDF is now working on a number of creative projects that could stop enemy drone infiltration.
“(During the October 7 attack), Israel was able to deal with Hamas missiles and there was no threat to Tel Aviv, for example,” Zisser said.
“With Hezbollah, it will be a completely different story. Israel has very capable air defense systems, but I don’t know how to deal with thousands of rockets. We will have to wait and see if Israel can really deal with such a threat or if it will find itself in a situation where it will suffer casualties and be hit by those missiles.” he added.
Zehavi agrees that one “We can never be too prepared for war.”
“We don’t have enough shelters in the north. Plus, we only have 15 seconds to reach them. So if a full-blown war breaks out, both sides will suffer.”
For now, Zisser is certain that a full-scale war is not on the table. “Neither side is interested in this,” “The Americans are also not ready to accept this conflict and Israel and Hezbollah will most likely continue their war of attrition along the border. But for Zehavi, the most important thing is that, whether a full-blown war breaks out or not, the threat from Hezbollah is properly handled,” he said.
“We must confront Hezbollah’s capabilities. The people of Israel want to live in peace and they will not go anywhere. So we will stay here and continue to live here and do everything necessary to live in peace and continue to live here.” he concluded.
