Sri Lankans will vote on Saturday to elect the South Asian nation's 10th president in the first election since the catastrophic economic crisis of 2022 that led the country to default on its loans.
Months of food and fuel shortages led to political chaos that forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country in July 2022.
Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded Rajapaksa and has since tried to improve the economic situation, is seeking re-election. His rivals are Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party.
Here's how the election will be held, what the leading candidates are promising, and what's at stake for the nation of 22 million people.
What time do elections start in Sri Lanka?
Voting will begin at 7:00 a.m. (01:30 GMT) on Saturday at the country's 13,134 polling stations. Polling stations will close at 4:00 p.m. (10:30 GMT). Vote counting is expected to begin at 9:30 p.m. (16:00 GMT).
How do elections work in Sri Lanka?
- An independent body called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the elections.
- Of Sri Lanka's 22 million people, about 17 million are eligible to vote. Voting is open to Sri Lankan citizens aged 18 or over who are registered with the electoral commission.
- Police, military and other public officials who cannot cast their ballots in person on Election Day do so by mail. This year, early voting took place on September 11 and 12, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES).
- Voters rank up to three candidates according to their preference on a ballot paper.
- A candidate needs to obtain 50 percent of the first-preference votes to secure the presidential seat in the first round.
- If no candidate receives 50 percent of the votes in the first round, a second round of counting takes place between the two candidates with the most votes in the first round. The remaining candidates are eliminated.
- There is no runoff election to determine the president, but instead the second preferences of the ballots of the eliminated candidates are taken into account. If those second preferences are for either of the two candidates with the most votes, they are transferred to their respective counts.
- If one of the two remaining candidates is marked as third preference, the vote is counted for that candidate.
- Under the 19th Amendment to Sri Lanka's Constitution, passed in 2015, the President serves for five years and has a two-term limit.
Who are the key candidates?
In total, 38 candidates are vying for the top executive post in the South Asian country. Although the number of candidates was initially set at 39, one of them, independent Idroos Mohamed Ilyas, died of a heart attack in August.
Key candidates are:
Ranil WickremesingheThe six-time prime minister took over as interim president in July 2022 following Rajapaksa's ouster. While the 75-year-old has been affiliated with the centre-right United National Party (UNP), he is running for the top job as an independent candidate.
Wickremesinghe is campaigning on the slogan “Puluwan Sri Lanka” or “Sri Lanka can” and the message that he has pulled the country out of the economic crisis.
But while several economic indicators have improved (inflation has fallen sharply and gross domestic product (GDP) is growing), opponents also criticise Wickremesinghe for belonging to the same political elite blamed for the economic crisis of 2022. The incumbent president has governed with the backing of the Rajapaksa family's Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party.
Critics also accuse Wickremasinghe – whose policies have included cuts in social welfare schemes to balance the country's books – of making the weaker sections of Sri Lankan society bear the brunt of the sacrifices needed for the nation's economic recovery.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake He is from the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, which has gained popularity after the 2022 crisis.
But Dissanayake’s popularity has been on the rise since the mass protest movement – known as Aragalaya (Sinhala for “struggle”) – erupted against then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Both were forced to resign.
Dissanayake, 55, has played an active role in the protest movement and has been critical of Wikremesinghe's $2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has raised the cost of living for Sri Lankans.
Although the JVP party remains a marginal player in Sri Lanka's parliament, Dissanayake's popularity has been on the rise. At the heart of his political campaign is a promise to root out corruption that appears to have permeated broad sections of Sri Lankan society.
Sajith Premadasa Premadasa founded the populist Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party after splitting from Wikremesinghe's UNP. Premadasa, the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, is the current leader of the opposition in Sri Lanka's parliament.
Premadasa, a long-time rival of Wickremasinghe when both were in the UNP, also contested the 2019 presidential election, which he lost to Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
His father, former President Premadasa, was assassinated in 1993 by rebels belonging to the Tamil separatist group Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. But Premadasa has in recent years sought to court the country's Tamil vote, which makes up 11 percent of the Buddhist-majority nation.
A major party representing Tamils in the north and east of the country, the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), has thrown its support behind opposition leader Premadasa. In the 2019 elections, a significant number of Tamils voted for him.
Namal Rajapaksa The youngest SLPP candidate, aged 38, is the eldest son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has served as the country's president and prime minister. He is the nephew of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and claims to bring change. However, support for the Rajapaksa family is at an all-time low due to the economic ravages of 2022.
Namal Rajapaksa served as Minister for Youth and Sports under his uncle from 2020 to 2022.
None of the 38 candidates in the election is a woman, although Sri Lanka gave the world its first female prime minister – Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike – in 1960.
Who is leading the polls in Sri Lanka?
Polls suggest Dissanayake could be the front-runner.
Among them is the Institute for Health Policy's (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker survey, which showed the leftist leader at 48 percent, followed by Premadasa at 25 percent. Incumbent Wickremesinghe is in third place at 20 percent. Namal Rajapaksa is close behind at 5 percent.
According to the Numbers.Ik website, which compiles statistics on Sri Lanka, Dissanayake leads with 40 percent, followed by Premadasa with 29 percent and Wickremesinghe with 25 percent. This figure is based on online data collected between September 9 and 16.
What's at stake?
The economy is undoubtedly the biggest issue for Sri Lankans in the election. The country's economy has collapsed in 2022, with inflation soaring to 70 percent and the currency depreciating by 45 percent. For months, people stood in long queues for fuel, severely affecting daily life.
Former President Rajapaksa's economic policies and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are believed to have contributed to the worst economic crisis in the island nation.
While some economic indicators have improved under Wickremasinghe, critics say that has come at a cost: IMF loans have meant that taxes and electricity prices have been raised as part of the deal with the international lender.
“With socio-economic indicators such as food security and poverty rates eroding, people’s well-being and development are seriously at stake,” said Rajni Gamage of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.
While Premadasa and Dissanayake have said they will press ahead with the IMF bailout negotiated with Wickremesinghe last year, they have pledged to cut taxes and privatization. Premadesa, in an interview with the Associated Press news agency, said he had already begun talks with the IMF to ease the tax burden on the population.
This year, ethnic minority votes could swing the election, as has happened in previous elections. The leading candidates are all Sinhalese, but voters come from diverse communities, including Tamils, Moors, Muslims and Burghers.
Although Dissanayake's campaign is based on seeking popular support, he has said he does not regret having supported the Rajapaksa government's war against the Tamil Tigers. The armed rebellion by Tamil rebels was crushed in 2009 under President Mahinda Rajapaksa after 26 years.
Wickremesinghe, on the other hand, is trying to appeal to Tamil politicians to discourage the community from supporting Premadasa.
“One thing that really stands out as different in this election is the absence of a strong ideological discourse among the three main candidates,” said Gamage of the National University of Singapore.
“The kind of divisive Sinhala Buddhist nationalism that we saw in the 2019 presidential campaign is much more toned down now,” he told Al Jazeera.
“If you look at the three main candidates, there is more or less consensus on the need to continue with the current IMF program.
“There are some small distinctions about how this would be done, namely governance indicators and some differences in the role of the market and the state, but overall, there is what we identify as a liberal consensus.”
When will the results be published?
The electoral authority has not given a specific date for the election results.
In the 2019 elections, the results were announced one day after the vote.
What happens if no one gets a majority?
In past elections, there were only two candidates who competed very closely. One of them emerged as the clear winner and second or third options were never considered.
With more candidates in contention and three candidates with significant support, analysts say there is a real possibility that no candidate will secure the necessary 50 percent majority. This could extend the vote count for longer than usual.
