A new poll reveals Democratic momentum in three states critical to Kamala Harris’ White House hopes: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows the vice president holding a lead in all three critical “blue wall” states.
Harris leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan 50% to 45% among 905 likely voters surveyed, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein leading by 2%, surpassing the 0.7% lead Harris holds on average in polls in the state, which awards 15 electoral votes.
If that number holds, the vice president will surpass Biden, who won the Wolverine State by about 150,000 votes in 2020.
Harris is buoyed by a marginal lead with Michigan independents (47% to 44%) and near-total support from Democrats: 98% support her, while 94% of registered Republicans back Trump.
In Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, Harris is in her strongest position in any poll this cycle.
There he leads with 51% to 45% among the 1,334 possible voters surveyed, with Stein and Libertarian Chasing Oliver pulling 1% each.
A 48% to 43% lead among independents helps, as does party loyalty, with 95% of Democrats professing support for the vice president; Trump appeals to 91% of Republicans.
Harris’s average lead in Pennsylvania polls is 0.6%, suggesting this poll could be an outlier. Precedent suggests as much: Biden won the Keystone State in the last cycle by about 80,000 votes.
And in Wisconsin, where 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, Harris leads Trump 48% to 47% among 1,075 likely voters, with the libertarian taking 1%. Oliver’s margin matches Harris’s average lead of 1.2% in the Badger State.
The reasons for the smaller margin in this case are twofold. First, Trump and Harris are tied with independent voters, at 46% each.
Compared to the other two blue wall states, the former president has more intraparty support in the dairy state than the current vice president: 95% of Republicans back Trump and 94% of Democrats back Harris.
On issues, voters in the trio of battlegrounds rank Trump strongest on the economy and immigration, while abortion, preserving democracy and crisis management are stronger issues for Harris.
The poll also looked at lower-level races, where Republicans have ground to make up.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in the fight for a Michigan Senate seat, 51 percent to 46 percent.
In Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, who maintains a strong position in the Senate, leads her Republican rival Eric Hovde by 51% to 47%.
And polls suggest that early election night results won’t tell the whole story. Most Election Day voters say they will vote for Trump, but Harris appears likely to win the absentee ballot race.
