Beirut, Lebanon – Low-flying Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier twice over Beirut as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered his first speech since two days of attacks that blew up pagers and walkie-talkie radios across Lebanon.
The attacks, which killed Lebanese citizens, both Hezbollah members and civilians including at least two children, came months after Nasrallah told his followers to stop using mobile phones because Israel could compromise their security.
They also came amid growing rhetoric from Israeli officials about stepping up operations on its northern front.
At least 37 people were killed and nearly 3,000 injured in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday.
More than 600 people have been killed since October 8, when Hezbollah and Israel began exchanging attacks on the border. More than 100 were civilians.
Hezbollah's response
Nasrallah appeared fatigued at the start of his speech on Thursday as he acknowledged the severity of the damage.
He described the attacks, which attempted to kill 5,000 people simultaneously, as a “major terrorist operation, an act of genocide and massacre.”
He admitted it was a “major blow… unprecedented in the history of the resistance,” but his energy grew as he delivered his speech, which included some of his trademark provocations against Israel, specifically its prime minister.
“(Benjamin) Netanyahu, … we welcome an invasion. … We consider it an opportunity,” he said.
Referring to Israel's stated goal on Thursday of making conditions near its border with Lebanon safe enough for residents who fled Hezbollah attacks to return, Nasrallah said: “I promise you that you will not be able to bring settlers back to their homes.”
Strong words aside, Nasrallah did not indicate when or where a response would come.
Those close to Hezbollah promised a surprising response after such shocking attacks.
“The response will be gradual, progressive and painful,” Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst believed to be close to the group, told Al Jazeera.
That challenge cannot be reckless, other analysts said, if Hezbollah is to avoid further losses of morale and personnel.
“The recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah exposed serious weaknesses and vulnerabilities,” Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.
“Hezbollah must now be extremely cautious in its response… I believe that Hezbollah’s retaliation will be delayed as it regroups with the aim of regaining the initiative and surprise, while also waiting for a possible agreement in Gaza before acting.”
Hezbollah's latest major retaliation was in response to Israel's assassination of the group's commander, Fuad Shukr, on August 25. More than 300 rockets were fired and drones launched at Israeli bases in response.
“We can say with certainty that Hezbollah's reaction to the killing of Fuad Shukr was not enough to restore deterrence,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph's University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.
“This so-called balance of terror no longer holds.”
'Living in a Netflix series'
For many in Lebanon, the past few days have been surreal.
“It feels like we are living in a Netflix series or a dystopia,” Bitar said.
“This is unprecedented in the history of wars in the Middle East, and we have witnessed so many tragic events.”
The attacks on Hezbollah communications also raised concerns among some Lebanese that an Israeli invasion would follow soon after.
Analysts told Al Jazeera that while they do not believe an invasion is imminent, that does not mean Israel will not expand its aggression against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“There is definitely a risk of a wider war,” Bitar said.
“It will be extremely difficult for the Iranian axis and Hezbollah to find the right way to retaliate without giving Netanyahu the pretext he is desperately seeking to launch this all-out offensive.”
Seth Krummrich, a former US special forces officer who now works at the risk management firm Global Guardian, said the pager attacks sent a “very clear message” to Hezbollah.
But he added that this might not achieve Israel's stated goal of returning displaced Israelis to its northern border because recent developments show the two sides are only moving further away from a negotiated settlement.
“The warring parties are growing further apart every day, and the most important voices in the region are saying that the attitude must change,” Krummrich said. “If Israel continues to move forward, the conflict will be prolonged and horrible.”
Technological disparity
Analysts said that if anything has become abundantly clear in recent days, it is that the technological advantage overwhelmingly favors Israel.
Nasrallah admitted this in his speech.
“We recognize that the enemy has technological supremacy, especially since it has the support of the United States and the West as a whole,” he said.
Pro-Hezbollah groups on Telegram reported on Wednesday that some Israeli websites had been hacked, including the pages of some Israeli municipalities.
But technological advantages alone cannot win a war, Krummrich said.
“Technological advantage is a mirage,” he said. “If you have the will, the people and the faith, you still have the ultimate advantage because war is presented as something that is constantly changing.”
“Both Israel and Hezbollah have that conviction, and that is not usually the case in conflict situations,” Krummrich added. “And that worries me greatly (because without a negotiated agreement) the situation is only going to get worse and worse.”
