Florida vs. Mississippi State odds and spreads: 2024 college football picks, Week 4 predictions based on proven model

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2) and Florida Gators (1-2) are both desperate for a win heading into their Saturday afternoon matchup. Florida head coach Billy Napier is in the crosshairs following a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M last week, which was Florida’s 12th loss in its last 15 games against power conference opponents. Mississippi State is preparing for its SEC opener after losing to Toledo in a 41-17 finale at home last week. It was the most lopsided non-conference home loss for the Bulldogs since 2006, so first-year head coach Jeff Lebby will look to right the ship in conference play.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Florida is a 6-point favorite in the latest Mississippi State vs. Florida odds, while the over/under is 58.5 points, according to the SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Florida vs. Mississippi State predictions, you'll want to See the model's college football predictions at SportsLine.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its bet. The best college football picks against the spread. He's also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks and is off to a 5-2 start on over/under selections this season. Anyone who has followed him has seen some good results.

The model has set her sights on State of Florida-Mississippi. Can Head over to SportsLine to see their picksHere are several College Football Betting Lines For the game:

• Mississippi State vs. Florida spread: Florida -6
• Mississippi State vs. Florida: Over/Under: 58.5 points
• Mississippi State vs. Florida money line: Florida -227, MSU +183
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Predictions Florida: See selections here

Why can Mississippi State cover?

Florida has gotten off to a terrible start this season, offering little resistance in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. There has been speculation about Napier's job stability all week, which certainly doesn't help team morale heading into its first road game of the season. The Gators are now 1-7 in their last eight games dating back to last season, and have only covered the spread once during that span.

Mississippi State hasn't gotten off to a great start either, but it's still trying to gain momentum with a first-year head coach. The Bulldogs don't have to worry about a midseason coaching change, which gives them more stability than Florida. Senior quarterback Blake Shapen has completed 70.1% of his passes for 834 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. See which team to choose here.

Why Florida can cover

Napier is feeling the pressure, so he should have his best game plan ready. He has been using a two-quarterback system early in the season, as senior Graham Mertz and freshman DJ Lagway have been getting snaps. Neither of them can afford to perform poorly in this matchup, as Napier has two options.

Mississippi State is coming off its most lopsided non-conference home loss since 2006, failing to get a first down on any of its first three possessions. The Bulldogs didn't score a touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the third quarter, despite coming into that game as 10.5-point favorites. They've covered the spread just three times in their last 14 games and are 1-7 in their last eight games against SEC opponents. See which team to choose here.

How to make predictions for Mississippi State vs. Florida

The model has simulated Florida vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are now in. The model is leaning Under and has also generated a point spread pick that is getting it right in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the selection on SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Florida, and which side of the spread gets it right more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida vs. Mississippi State spread you should bet on, all from the advanced computer model that has won more than $2,000 on its best college football spread picks since its inception.and find out.