Another week, another round of crucial decisions about whether players will start or not. To help you make them, here's a look at six players with the potential to bust in Week 3.
Something to keep in mind as you read: A “fade” or “bust” designation doesn't automatically mean you should bench a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
Want some old-school football? Look no further than this Chargers-Steelers matchup in Week 3, where offensive coordinators Greg Roman and Arthur Smith may be competing not for the win, but to see which team can emerge with a lower passing rate.
That brings me to my first snub of the week: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. There’s no doubt in my mind that Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, who has unfortunately been linked to a series of inept head coaches and offensive coordinators. Unfortunately, now that he has some semblance of stability around him on the coaching staff, his ultimate goal appears to be taking the air out of the football.
Through two weeks, the Chargers have the second-lowest pass rate in the league at 42.9%… and they sit just one spot ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers at 44.4%. This matchup calls for “throwing the ball down their throats,” and with such a low projected pass volume, Herbert should be on the bench.
Heat control 🔥 Justin Herbert should be benched in most leagues with just one quarterback in favor of other streaming options like Geno Smith (vs. Dolphins) or Deshaun Watson (vs. Giants). While Superflex and two-quarterback managers may not have the luxury of streaming, they should certainly temper expectations in what Vegas projects to be the lowest-scoring matchup of the week (35.5 points).
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals continue to be a pleasant surprise in every aspect this year, and 29-year-old running back James Conner is no exception. Aside from a goal-line fumble in Week 2 (thankfully recovered by Trey McBride), For a touchdown), Conner has been exactly what fantasy managers expected, tied for sixth in the league for most rushing attempts with a 100% team market share on the team's RB rushing attempts inside the red zone and five, impeccable usage.
In Week 3, the Lions’ defensive strengths against the run could force the Cardinals to lean more heavily on the pass, allowing -0.9 rushing yards above expectation per carry per NFL Next Gen Stats (the fifth-lowest average in the league) for an average of 3.3 total yards per attempt to opposing running backs. Expect a less efficient day for Conner than we’re used to against this unit, which limited Kyren Williams to just 54 total yards in Week 1 on 22 touches.
Heat control 🔥 You're still using Conner as a starter in Week 3 fantasy lineups, but consider him more of an RB2 with touchdown potential against this Lions defense.
Dallas Cowboys Running Backs
Surprise! The answer to the question “Which Dallas Cowboys running back should we draft?” is… none of them, so far. Who would do it? Did you think 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott and undrafted free agent Rico Dowdle wouldn’t be part of one of the league’s best rushing attacks? Through two weeks, neither Elliott nor Dowdle has had more than 10 carries in a game, and neither of them has been efficient enough with their ground work to top that for fantasy purposes; they’re averaging 3.5 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively.
In Week 3, the Cowboys will have their work cut out for them against the Baltimore Ravens' defensive line. No thanks.
Heat control 🔥 I don't care how desperate he is or what other running back injuries he has. I'm going to rule out this entire Cowboys backfield at all costs in Week 3.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
You might recognize Pittman Jr. from last week's column. Well… he's back! Week 2 proved just as troubling as Week 1 for Pittman, who totaled just 52 receiving yards through two weeks. That production has left fantasy managers who invested a third- or fourth-round pick in the veteran wide receiver very disappointed; he's currently ranked as the WR69 through the first two weeks of the season.
Pittman's biggest issue right now is the volatility of the passing game. Quarterback Anthony Richardson excels at deep passing, but has struggled in the short and intermediate passing game, where Pittman works his magic.
While he's currently averaging a career-high 10.9 yards, that hasn't translated into production. He's averaging career lows across the board, with a 50% catch rate, 7.4 yards per reception, 0.96 yards per route run and a very, very disappointing 1.3 yards after the catch per reception.
Heat control 🔥 I promise this will be the last time I mention him (at least for the next few weeks). Consider this a standing warning against Pittman; dismiss his presence until proven otherwise. It's unfortunate, but his high skill level on the field currently doesn't match his fantasy production, and he's no longer a player who should be a starter.
Miami Dolphins WR
As much talent as I know Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle possess, I'm not sure it's enough to overcome Skylar Thompson's deficiencies under center… especially against a vastly underrated Seattle Seahawks secondary with Julian Love, Tariq Woollen and second-year game-breaker Devon Witherspoon playing so well.
In games where Thompson has played at least 25% of the offensive snaps, he's averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt, an average that would be tied with rookie Bo Nix for the fourth-lowest average among QBs with 10 or more back-of-the-envelope passes this season, according to PFF. He's thrown for a touchdown on just 1.2% of attempts, while throwing an interception on 2.5% of attempts. You don't need all of these stats to innately know that this passing attack is taking a step back without Tua Tagovailoa, but the numbers are even uglier than you might assume.
Heat control 🔥 You're not likely to have the luxury of benching either of these receivers, so I hate to be the party pooper. Both Hill and Waddle have the physical talent to overcome poor quarterback play, but it seems likely that offensive genius Mike McDaniel will make plans to play to the team's strength in the running game until they find another answer at quarterback.
TE Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
Sorry in advance for ruling out everyone's favorite tight end. Parkinson, who will take the place of the injured Tyler Higbee, has performed admirably in a small sample size and could have a big role in the offense without Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle).
Parkinson has ranked second among tight ends with 67 routes run through the first two weeks of the season, and that level of participation should continue going forward given his needs. However, a Week 3 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers isn't going to cure either tight end's woes.
The 49ers are allowing -0.49 EPA per pass back at the tight end position, the sixth-lowest in the league according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That equates to allowing just three receptions for 18 receiving yards to tight ends on the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings. set. Admittedly, neither of these teams has any genuine TE1s, but they also had the unfortunate opportunity to face linebacker Fred Warner in the middle of the field, a matchup Parkinson addresses next. Warner is one of the league’s best linebackers in coverage, already with a forced incompletion, a pass breakup, and an interception through the first two weeks of the season.
Heat control 🔥 It's tough to bench Parkinson if you've been banking on the tight end position, as there haven't been any consistent options that have excelled yet. Given the volume opportunity despite the inefficiency, consider him a marginal TE1/TE2, considering his ceiling is fairly low.
