Fantasy Baseball Today: Ronald Acuña among the five most difficult outfielders to classify for 2025

I need more time to figure out the outfield for 2025. Luckily, I have like six months to get there, but I wanted to at least have a draft ready by the end of this week so I could focus on pitchers next week (I wrote about some way-too-early conclusions about infield rankings last week), but it was just too tall of a task.

Obviously, the outfield is the hardest position to rank among the hitting positions because it’s the biggest position. But it’s also the hardest to rank because there are so many hard-to-decipher players at that position. Oh, it’s pretty easy at the top, with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Mookie Betts ranking among the obvious, no-doubt first-rounders. But after that, you have to figure out where to put Ronald Acuña, Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis in the midst of injury-ravaged seasons, Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez in the midst of hugely disappointing seasons, and the breakouts of players like Jarren Duran, Jackson Chourio and more.

So, yes, I do need more time. I hope to have an initial list of 2025 rankings for each position ready for you by the end of the regular season, but the outfield will require a little more thought. And today I'm going to give you some examples of why I need some additional time, so before we do a recap of Thursday's conference, MLB Action, here are five outfielders I have a hard time deciding how to rank heading into 2025:

Ronald Acuña, Braves

When Acuña tore his ACL in 2021, he ended up returning just over nine months later. If he follows a similar timeline this time around, he'll be ready for Opening Day in 2025, as nine months after his late-May injury would be late February. ought There will be plenty of time for Acuña to return to 100% in time for the season, but how confident can we be that Acuña will be himself? He was struggling mightily before the injury, hitting .250/.351/.365 with just four home runs, and the underlying numbers suggested it wasn’t just bad luck: Acuña had a .262 expected batting average and a .430 expected slugging percentage, leading to a .348 xwOBA, by far the worst of his career.

And of course, Acuña struggled the last time he returned from a torn ACL, posting a .764 OPS and just 15 homers in 119 games, by far the worst numbers of his career. On the other hand, we absolutely know, for a fact, that a healthy, focused Acuña is the best player in Fantasy, as he proved in 2023. I'm leaning toward ranking him as a top-five outfielder and a first-round pick for 2025 despite the concerns, but have to take into account the concerns. I'm not sure any other first-rounder is going to have comparable concerns.

Oneil Cruz, Pirates

There’s no question that Cruz still has incredible physical tools, and he became the first player other than Giancarlo Stanton to have multiple batted balls hit at least 120 mph in a season in the Statcast era; he’s done it four times this season. It’s true, raw, 80s-grade power, and Cruz has started to put his other prodigious physical tools on display as the season has progressed, going 15-of-15 on base-stealing attempts since the All-Star break. He still has easy 30-30 potential, and he’s even lowered his strikeout rate to a much more manageable 28.4% in the second half of the season as well.

And it is not fair Because the Pirates have been protecting him from lefties in the second half, as he’s also lowered his strikeout rate to 27.9% against them in the second half (he struck out 31.7% of the time against them in the first half). Cruz is about to turn 26, but he’s still pretty raw, and that can be looked at in two ways. First, if you’re a nonbeliever, you can say that it probably means he’ll never be a finished product — or at least not the kind of finished product we want him to be. If you’re an optimist, you can argue that Cruz is still showing elite potential and signs of improvement. And, well, he’s a top-40 hitter in Roto this season, which isn’t too bad for an unfinished product.

Tyler O'Neill, Red Sox

In moving from St. Louis to Boston, O’Neill did exactly what we expected him to do with his ballpark upgrade: He hit a ton of home runs. Thirty-one of them and counting in just 107 games, putting him just three shy of his career high with one week left in the season. And while the underlying numbers don’t quite back him up (.370 wOBA vs. .346 xwOBA), they’re still the second-best of his career. But there are three problems I can see when it comes to trying to value O’Neill for 2025:

1. He missed more than 40 games for the third consecutive season.
2. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed to a career-high 33.4%.
3. He is a free agent this offseason.

I'm less worried about the third because of O'Neill's power ought O'Neill has played well anywhere, and in fact, he's played better away from Fenway this season. The former has been a consistent issue for O'Neill, but I'll point out that two of his DL stints appear to be pure flukes: one was due to a concussion and the other was due to a leg infection, which cost him a combined 20 games. Strikeouts are an issue that seems to keep O'Neill's batting average from being useful and could lead to some nasty downside scenarios. But the way he's performed on power this season was promising enough that I think O'Neill is worth the risk within the first 150 picks or so. I'd rather take a chance on him than someone like Adolis Garcia, at least.

Mike Trout, Angels

For one glorious month, we got the old Trout back. He played in 29 games and hit 10 homers and six steals, putting him on pace for 56 and 34. And then he tore the meniscus in his knee, which ultimately didn’t heal the way the Angels hoped, necessitating another season-ending midseason surgery. Trout has now missed at least 43 games in four straight seasons, playing in just 41% of the Angels’ total games in that span. When he’s still on the field, Trout is still a difference-maker, hitting .276/.376/.575 in that span, and he proved this season that he can still run if he wants to. Of course, will he want to keep running after another season ruined by lower leg injuries? Probably not, right? So we're left to bet that the bat will continue to be the difference-maker for a 33-year-old with a long list of health issues in his recent past. A healthy Trout is probably still a top-20 Fantasy player, and I hope we can get another 150-game season from the best player I've ever seen play baseball. But I think we've finally reached the point where you can't bet on him unless he costs a pick outside of the first 10 rounds.

James Wood, Nationals

Much like Cruz, Wood is clearly not a finished product, so the fact that he's on pace for 16 homers and 31 steals while hitting .265 as a 21-year-old this season is incredibly impressive. Wood hits the ball hard and is a top-notch athlete, but he also strikes out 29.1% of the time and has one of the highest ground ball rates in the majors, which stunts his power potential. It's easy enough to see how Wood could emerge as a 30-30 player who won't kill you in batting average as early as next season, and there are certainly first-round outcomes in his future. And it might be worth betting on the ceiling with a third-round pick, given how huge he could be. But then you look at a Even younger There's a player like Jackson Chourio with similar potential who has reached much of his potential as the season has progressed, and it becomes much harder to justify going for Wood. I think he's a top-50 pick for his potential, but there's a good chance someone else in every league I play in will be convinced to sign him at an even higher price. I'm going to be very afraid of missing out on any money.