Cincinnati Reds 2024 Offseason Preview: What needs to happen for the Reds to return to the postseason?
Let's take a look at what the 2024 season was like for the Cincinnati Reds, the questions the team needs to address this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What's next for the White Sox, A's, Pirates and more??
Things that went well
Throughout the season, Elly De La Cruz captured the imagination of Reds fans. Sure, the shortstop strikes out about as often as anyone else in baseball, but magical things happen when he puts the ball in play, thanks to his high-power skills and blazing speed. De La Cruz took home this year's stolen base crown and reached base at a higher rate than many expected. It will be a pleasure to watch him play for many years to come.
Hunter Greene may not have been on the same level as De La Cruz as a starter, but his emergence as the team's budding ace was a significant step forward for Cincinnati this year. The hard-throwing right-hander improved his ability to limit hard contact and keep the ball in the field, and he already possessed tremendous strikeout skills.
Things that went wrong
Overall, a lot went wrong for a team that was supposed to contend for the postseason. Several promising young hitters endured disappointing years. Perhaps no player was more frustrated than Matt McLain, who was expected to be a centerpiece of the lineup before he was signed. He underwent shoulder surgery and ended up missing the entire season.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand had similar expectations, but he didn't fare much better. He played poorly in 29 games before his season was ended by a fractured right hand that required surgery. Noelvi Marte was another young hitter who disappointed the team, as he was suspended for the first 80 games of the season and had little impact in the second half.
A pair of veteran outfielders also failed to live up to expectations. TJ Friedl had to deal with three stints on the disabled list for unrelated injuries in the first half and didn't make much of an impact down the stretch. Meanwhile, Jake Fraley's power completely disappeared.
Expectations weren't as high on the pitching side, but there were still some disappointments. Nick Lodolo couldn't quite copy Greene's step forward, which isn't surprising for someone who logged four stints on the injured list. In the bullpen, Alexis Diaz trended in the wrong direction with his strikeout rate and walk rate as he dealt with diminished fastball velocity for the second straight year.
Off-season plans
The Reds have plenty of pieces in place to get back on the right track quickly. The infield is especially deep. De La Cruz is established at shortstop, and the combination of McLain, Marte, Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario can cover the other three spots. Spencer Steer is also an option at first base. India was a popular name on the trade market last winter, but the team might want to keep him on the team, given the uncertainty surrounding McLain and Marte. Tyler Stephenson has the team covered behind the plate after making offensive and defensive improvements this year.
Cincinnati has plenty of outfielders in Steer, Friedl, Fraley and Will Benson, but could look for upgrades. Steer isn't the problem, as he was one of the team's best hitters this season. Friedl has enough bounce-back potential to remain the center fielder. Fraley and Benson are left-handed hitters who perform better against righties. It would make sense to trade one of them, even if the return is modest.
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There are plenty of options in the rotation, but many of them were on the injured list down the stretch. Greene dealt with elbow soreness late in the season but is expected to remain the team’s ace. Lodolo has struggled with injuries throughout his three-year career, but thankfully, none of his 2024 ailments were a long-term concern. Andrew Abbott suffered a shoulder strain down the stretch but can be counted on as a mid-rotation starter. Graham Ashcraft, who missed the second half with an elbow injury, and Carson Spiers could round out the rotation.
There are also some prospects who could make contributions next year, but overall, the talent in the rotation still lags behind the position players, which would make it a good idea for the team to add a starter via trade or free agency.
As for relievers, the Reds' bullpen ranked near the middle of the pack in ERA in 2024, which is all the more impressive considering Diaz disappointed for the Reds as their anchor. Diaz will likely open 2025 as the closer, but management would be wise to add a setup man who can take over the ninth inning if needed.
Perspectives on the horizon
Cincinnati has a solid minor league system, but most of its top youngsters are a couple of years away. Still, there are a few who could contribute next year. And the good news is that immediate help will come where the team needs it most: on the mound.
Rhett Lowder, the seventh overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, is the team's most ready prospect. The 22-year-old enjoyed great success in his first season in the minor leagues and debuted with the Reds down the stretch. He could be part of the 2025 Opening Day rotation.
Lowder will eventually join Chase Petty, who was a first-round draft pick out of high school in 2021. Petty didn’t have much success in Double-A this year and will need to show improvement in 2025 before (hopefully) joining the Reds in the summer. Julian Aguiar is another hope for the rotation. Like Lowder, he debuted with the Reds in late 2024, but Aguiar didn’t have early success and will likely need more time in Triple-A.
The Reds' top prospect, Chase Burns, will likely debut in 2026. Burns was selected second overall in 2024 and can top 100 mph with his fastball. He pitched for Tennessee in the 2023 College World Series before transferring to Wake Forest for the 2024 season.
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Goals for 2025
The Reds should plan to take the expected step this year, and that means reaching the postseason in a 162-game season for the first time since 2013. The pieces are in place for a quality offense, and the group would look even better with the addition of an outfielder.
This team will only go as far as its pitching will take it, though, and there are plenty of questions about that. If management adds some veteran pitchers and some young pitchers show improvement, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Reds could be NL Central champions in 2025.
Fantasy approach
De La Cruz will be a first-round pick in every 2025 fantasy draft and could be taken first overall in several leagues. Steer and Stephenson will be stable mid-round picks, and McLain will be a make-or-break option in the same draft range.
Greene will be a coveted third-string pitcher on mixed-league teams. Other pitchers, such as Lodolo and Diaz, will be late-round options that could really pay off.
