Andrews' production and Likely's role present an interesting Fantasy Football dilemma heading into Week 3

In Week 1, the Ravens saw Mark Andrews get double-covered, and Isaiah Likely had a big game.

In Week 2, Andrews didn't receive much coverage from the Raiders, and had an average game, while Likely did very little.

It's already Week 3 and there's a lot of concern about how dominant Andrews remains and whether or not Likely was as good in Week 1.

Let’s start with Andrews, who, despite two straight games of fewer than 10 PPR points, has a 75% route rate in each matchup and should be counted on for something similar in Week 3. Against the Raiders in Week 2, he was open over the middle a fair amount of time when they played zone coverage. And with an average route depth of 8.37 yards, Andrews consistently worked further down the field than Likely — for the second straight game, in fact.

This figures to be a big factor against a Cowboys defense that has played zone coverage on at least 83% of its snaps in every game. It means they won't double-team Andrews very often, if at all, and it means they could leave the middle of the field open for Andrews, which Lamar Jackson might find optimal if he gets pressured quickly off the snap like he did last week against the Raiders.

By comparison, Likely wasn’t used as much in Week 2 (31 snaps) as he was in Week 1 (52 snaps). That seemed to be for a couple of reasons: The Ravens opted to put more speed on the field with their three-receiver formations, and they got the run game going in the second half for the first time this year. Likely got a bit more playing time in the first half and then again once the Ravens abandoned the run game late.

Plus, the Raiders had some answers for Likely, and they usually put a defensive back on him instead of a linebacker. Remember his long touchdown against the Chiefs? It was with a linebacker he outran. Las Vegas didn't take any chances.

So, any time the Ravens' running game has a favorable matchup, Likely's playing time could be limited. And even if his snaps and routes aren't limited, a defense that uses a defensive back on him could keep his numbers in check. These aren't problems that Andrews has, at least not to the same degree.

The bet this week is that Baltimore’s running game will succeed. Dallas’ run defense was crushed by Alvin Kamara and a really good Saints offensive line last week, beating the Cowboys with five-yard-per-carry zone runs on 25 carries (nearly half gained at least five yards). Derrick Henry has been much better at zone runs (5.3 yards per carry) than he has at gap runs (2.8), so it would make sense for the Ravens to lean on that scheme. And it’s not like Dallas’ huge defensive tackle Mazi Smith has been great for two weeks, but he missed practice to start the week, and if he’s out, then Dallas’ depth will surely be tested by Henry.

So if the Ravens can run, Andrews and Likely's numbers could be a bit dicey, unless they score. If they can't run, or if the Cowboys find a way to get past the Ravens' defense (which is a possibility), then Andrews and Likely could have really solid games.

Andrews plays too much and is more than a basic tight end, so he's a player that needs to be put in the starting lineup. You already knew that.

I'd have reservations about starting Likely unless he doesn't have any decent options. Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet are all touchdown-dependent options. Zach Ertz doesn't have any more upside than Likely. Jonnu Smith is fun but risky as his role and receiving averages could be affected by Miami's new quarterback. Mike Gesicki isn't as appealing if Tee Higgins plays. No one else stands out.

So he's likely a low-level starter by default, but expectations should be tempered. At least in his case, there are avenues for him to receive more targets than last week, but probably not as many as Andrews. That seems like a one-week moment.


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