MLB predictions, odds and best bets for Thursday

Three weeks after being removed from the Phillies’ starting rotation, Taijuan Walker is back with another chance to redeem a dismal season in Thursday’s clash with the Mets.

Walker was given the start after impressing Rob Thomson with three scoreless innings of relief against the Mets in a 6-4 win on Saturday.

I’m not holding my breath: Thomson is forced to take another look at Walker after unsuccessfully trying three other pitchers in that No. 5 spot with the postseason approaching.

Walker’s regression in play is noticeable.

According to Statcast, he ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in expected ERA at 6.55.

In his last start on Aug. 28, the Phillies were routed 10-0 after Walker allowed 13 hits and six earned runs in as many innings.

He has struck out two batters in his last 14 innings and has his lowest strikeout rate per nine innings of his career.

Luis Severino faces him at the opposite end of the spectrum, chaining together a season of rebirth.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters With

He has fine-tuned his pitching issues while regaining confidence in his fastball, which has struck out hitters at a rate nearly three percent higher than in his abysmal 2023, according to Statcast.

In five starts since pitching a complete-game shutout against the Marlins, Severino is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA.


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He’s looking to make up for the pair of homers and three earned runs the Phillies gave him in Saturday’s no-decision.

Now Severino is back to face them comfortably at Citi Field, which is where much of his success has come from; there he has an ERA of 2.86, almost two runs less than his ERA on the road.

Walker regained some confidence coming out of the bullpen, but Thomson’s turn toward him is a desperation move that Severino’s pace is primed to exploit.

THE PLAY: Mets money line (-135, DraftKings)


Why trust the New York Post’s bets?

Sean Treppedi forecasts NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on picks that reflect market value while also following trends to mitigate risk.

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