After a rough start to the season against San Francisco, the Jets bounced back in Week 2, beating Tennessee by a touchdown in Nashville.
They now return home to host the Patriots, who are off to a surprisingly solid start to the season.
It will be a Thursday Night Football matchup between two 1-1 teams in the AFC East that are still trying to find their identities.
What can we expect from this divisional fight?
Can the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets beat New England at home for the first time in nearly a decade?
Here are our best bets for the spread and total points:
Point spread between Patriots and Jets
The line opened with the Jets as seven-point favorites, but it quickly moved to 6.5, where it has settled at most sportsbooks.
The Jets are 1-1 against the spread in their first two games, while New England is 1-0-1.
While it would seem like the Jets should crush New England in this matchup, the Patriots have been resilient and physical with a primarily run-based offense through the first two weeks under new coach Jerod Mayo.
Additionally, the Jets’ defense, which was projected to be a top-tier unit heading into the season, has underperformed and is already banged up, with several players appearing on the injury report.
They will be without defenders Jermaine Johnson (Achilles tear) and Haason Reddick (contract dispute), while cornerback DJ Reed (knee) and MLB forward CJ Mosley (toe) are questionable to play.
Even nickel Michael Carter II is on a pitch count and likely will be for the rest of the season due to a nagging ankle injury.
The accumulation of injuries and the contract dispute with Reddick make the Jets’ front line extremely susceptible to the run.
They’ve given up 310 rushing yards, ninth-most in the league after two weeks.
However, the Pats, who have been fantastic running the ball, will be without LT Vederian Lowe and LG Sidy Sow, while C David Andrews and RT Mike Onwenu are listed as questionable.
Given the already-existing issues in pass protection, the long list of injuries on their offensive line and the obvious weaknesses at the skill positions outside of running back, it will be difficult for New England to move the ball against the Jets, even with their own set of struggles and injuries.
I’ll be banking on New York’s offense finally taking off on Thursday night.
Recommendation: Jets -6 (-110, ESPN BET)
More/less
The point total for this game sits at 38.5, down from 42 entering the game. That’s the second-lowest total of Week 3 and a decent number for two teams that have been mediocre offensively.
Through the first two weeks, the Patriots are 1-1 in the Over, while the Jets are 1-0-1.
Betting on the NFL?
As with teams like New England that love to run the ball, their point totals are often lower as the clock continues to run after every inbounds running play.
However, the growing injury list on both teams and the Jets’ disappointing performance on defense, particularly stopping the run, are concerning enough to consider an over at this position.
Plus, Rodgers and company should have no trouble scoring some touchdowns against a bottom-third Pats secondary that simply allowed Geno Smith to throw for nearly 330 yards.
Recommendation: Over 38.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Why trust the New York Post’s bets?
Andrew Norton wagers on the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC, and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved an impressive 14.1% ROI, cashing in on 60% of his NBA picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.
