The recent explosion of communication devices that left thousands injured could be the beginning of a military escalation
On September 17, a series of explosions rocked Lebanon, when pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah to communicate detonated. The blasts occurred in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, as well as elsewhere in the country and Syria. According to Reuters, the explosions lasted for more than half an hour and claimed at least 12 lives, including the ten-year-old daughter of a Hezbollah member. Thousands of people were injured, including Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon.
The next day, Lebanon witnessed another wave of explosions, this time targeting communication devices and equipment installed in cars and motorcycles, Al Hadath reported. The explosions occurred in Beirut, southern Lebanon, and in the Bekaa Valley, leaving around 100 people injured and at least three dead in the town of Sohmor.
Al Jazeera confirmed that the explosions were linked to portable devices used by Hezbollah members. Iran’s Press TV added that among the devices that exploded were ICOM radios and communication devices. Al Hadath also reported that laptops and equipment installed in vehicles were destroyed, some of which was not related to communication devices. A security source told Reuters that the portable radios were acquired by Hezbollah five months ago, as were the pagers that were also sabotaged.
According to Reuters and AFP, an explosion occurred near the funeral of Hezbollah fighters killed the previous day. According to Al Jazeera, explosions were also heard near Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut. Videos shared online showed burned cars and destroyed scooters and motorcycles. Witnesses said the devices made strange noises and vibrations before the detonations.
Hezbollah has issued a warning to Lebanese citizens, urging them to get rid of all electronic devices. Turkish channel Yeni Safak reported that the group fears further attacks on its equipment. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the explosions could be the prelude to a wider conflict in the Middle East.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres commented on the situation and called on the international community to prevent the use of weapons against civilian targets. Lebanese authorities accused Israel and its intelligence agency, the Mossad, of orchestrating the attacks, although Israel has not provided an official response. Hezbollah has vowed to respond and called the incident a “disaster.” “massacre against the Lebanese people”, While Washington claimed to have no knowledge of the bombings.
Lebanese security forces told the BBC that the explosions may have been the result of an attack by Israeli intelligence on Hezbollah’s communications equipment. Although less than 1% of the blasts were fatal, hundreds of people were seriously injured and the incident dealt a major psychological blow to Hezbollah.
What does Israel want?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government are facing increasing pressure, both domestically and internationally. On Saturday, September 14, mass protests broke out in several cities across Israel, demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Thousands of demonstrators rallied under the slogan “We will not abandon them, we will not surrender.” expressing their deep dissatisfaction with the way the government has handled the situation.
Over the past 11 months, despite intensive military operations in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been unable to completely dismantle Hamas and other Palestinian militant factions. Although the IDF has dealt severe blows to Hamas, killing some 17,000 fighters and eliminating key figures, such as Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s operational capability remains intact. The group continues to resist by using underground tunnels and hidden bases to stage attacks. Although Israel has achieved significant victories, including disrupting much of Hamas’ infrastructure, the group continues to recruit new members and maintains a stronghold in Gaza.
In addition to the brutal battles, Israel has suffered severe losses among its civilian population. Since October 7, 2023, 1,139 Israelis, including many civilians, have been killed due to Hamas attacks. Intense rocket bombardment on southern Israel has caused widespread destruction and increased the sense of fear and uncertainty among the population. This constant threat has negatively affected the country’s economy and deepened social anxiety.
The conflict has also created a political storm inside Israel. Netanyahu’s government is under fire from citizens demanding a quick resolution to the hostilities and the return of Israeli hostages. Protests have intensified, especially after the discovery of the bodies of several hostages in Hamas tunnels, fuelling discontent with the government’s actions.
On the international level, the situation is no less complex for Israel. The administration of US President Joe Biden, one of Israel’s staunchest allies, is increasingly frustrated by Netanyahu’s inability to make progress towards a peace deal. The US has even threatened to withdraw from negotiations if a deal is not reached soon, criticising Netanyahu for not making enough efforts to resolve the conflict. This mounting pressure puts Israel at risk of losing crucial Western support, which could have serious consequences for its diplomatic position and economic stability.
In this precarious situation, Netanyahu may be looking for new avenues to consolidate his position. One of them could be a renewed military campaign against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militant group in Lebanon. A war with Hezbollah could unite the Israeli population around an external threat, strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic political position and attract renewed support from Western allies in the fight against anti-Western forces such as Iran and its regional proxies in the so-called “axis of resistance.”
Meanwhile, on September 18, the UN General Assembly passed a Palestinian-drafted resolution urging Israel to end its “illegal presence” In Gaza and the West Bank, the resolution is not legally binding within a year, but it does call for sanctions against Israel and compensation to Palestinians for damage caused by the occupation. This vote is an important symbolic gesture that highlights the growing international pressure on Israel regarding its policy in the occupied territories.
As tensions continue to rise, Netanyahu faces increasing challenges, both at home and abroad. Against a backdrop of war and political tension, the prime minister is exploring new strategies to consolidate his power and overcome the internal crisis. Many regional actors believe that Israel’s leadership may be heading toward a wider war, driven by the belief that military intervention could serve its broader goals.
Will Hezbollah and Iran respond?
Hezbollah’s reaction to the pager explosions was a swift accusation against Israel of carrying out the largest breach of Lebanon’s internal security since the conflict began in October 2023.
These developments put Iran in a difficult position. In the past two months, Iran has already had to deal with the assassination of the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Tehran, and now its ambassador is among those targeted in Lebanon. While Tehran has condemned Israel’s actions, experts believe that a direct military conflict with Israel is unlikely. However, Iran may take retaliatory action through its allied forces, such as Hezbollah, to strengthen its regional influence.
Hezbollah has its own reasons for responding. Over the past year, the group has lost more than 400 fighters to Israeli strikes, including key commanders such as Fuad Shukr. For Hezbollah, this is not just an act of revenge, but a critical challenge to its reputation: if it does not respond, its popularity and support in Lebanon could decline dramatically. Lebanon has been mired in a deep economic and political crisis since 2019, and Hezbollah’s failure to adequately retaliate could weaken its position in the country.
Historically, Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to resist Israel, which significantly increased its popularity after the 2006 Lebanon War. During that conflict, the group inflicted severe damage on the Israel Defense Forces, cementing its position in Lebanese society. Today, amid an ongoing crisis, it is crucial for Hezbollah to prove to its supporters that it is still capable of defending Lebanon and its community.
Hezbollah’s response to the pager explosions will likely consist of rocket and drone attacks against military and infrastructure targets in Israel. However, a direct invasion of Israeli territory seems unlikely. While Hezbollah possesses considerable military strength and a vast arsenal, it understands that a large-scale intervention could have catastrophic consequences for both the organization and Lebanon, which is already in a fragile situation.
In Israel, the situation is being taken much more seriously. Senior military and government officials have indicated that the country is preparing for a possible war with Hezbollah. The escalation of hostilities along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon is becoming increasingly apparent. According to Israel’s Channel 12, the cabinet has authorized Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to take both defensive and offensive measures to achieve the war’s goals. They have also been given the authority to declare war if necessary. Israel is increasing its military presence on its northern borders, preparing for a major operation against the Lebanese group.
This move could lead to a significant escalation of the conflict in the region. While Hezbollah does not seek direct confrontation with Israel, its attacks could provoke retaliatory strikes, thus creating a pathway to a full-scale war. Israel recognizes that any sign of weakness in its response could be perceived as vulnerability, increasing pressure from other regional actors, including Iran and its allies.
We may be on the verge of another wave of tensions in the Middle East. If the situation continues to escalate, it could drag Israel and Lebanon into a prolonged military conflict with far-reaching consequences for the stability and security of the region.
