College Football Playoff Bubble, Week 4: Michigan and Notre Dame have work to do after early losses
The SEC and Big Ten still have power Early-season college football playoff projectionsBut there are several programs under observation within the national rankings but outside of those leagues with many future opportunities to make their way into the conversation.
Notre Dame and Utah face off in crucial matchups in Week 4, along with Michigan. The Fighting Irish can't afford a letdown after taking out their frustrations on Purdue, while the Utes warmed up for their Big 12 opener with a rout of Utah State. Saturday's respite comes from Miami (Ohio) before a crucial home contest with Louisville to end the month. The Utes will try to They entered Boone-Pickens Stadium at Oklahoma State and come away with a win as a slight visiting underdog.
The Wolverines can reach out and touch the proverbial wall already. with the arrival of USC to Michigan StadiumA loss to the Trojans sends Michigan out of the top 25 for the first time since Week 2 of the 2021 season. Michigan's plan is to start Alex Orji as quarterback in an effort to jumpstart the offense following the inconsistent play of Davis Warren, who threw six interceptions in three games.
The Wolverines' playoff bubble deteriorates if Michigan loses a second home game after being thrashed by Texas earlier this month. That setback raised questions for the defending national champions and led to the Longhorns eventually getting past Georgia in No. 1 in the AP Top 25 after last week's action.
College Football Playoff Bubble: Week 4
Missouri:The Tigers look to have a nice non-conference win against Boston College ahead of Saturday's game against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are clear underdogs and have lost nine straight games against SEC opponents dating to the 2022 campaign.
Our LadyMarcus Freeman's team responded to the loss to NIU in a big way last weekend by defeating Purdue 66-7. It was a much-needed win for the Fighting Irish, who remain very much in the mainstream conversation with a matchup with nationally ranked Louisville next weekend.
Utah: The Utes’ Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State helps determine who the favorite is in the league race, along with undefeated Kansas State. Two-time all-conference quarterback Cameron Rising is expected to play, and his presence in the lineup is a big reason Utah was considered the preseason favorite in the conference. These two programs are meeting for the first time since 1945.
MichiganIt’s only Week 4, but the Wolverines’ matchup with USC is a pivotal moment in Sherrone Moore’s first season. The Wolverines already have one loss, and not winning their Big Ten home opener means playoff hopes fade considerably given the rest of the slate. With three games on the schedule against currently ranked teams (No. 24 Illinois, No. 9 Oregon, No. 3 Ohio State), the road to beating them would be an arduous one.
State of Oklahoma:Oklahoma State will do everything it can on Saturday to ensure Utah has a not-so-friendly welcome to the Big 12 in Stillwater, with Alan Bowman and Ollie Gordon the Cowboys' offensive force. Bowman is coming off a five-touchdown performance, while Gordon, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, has yet to find his groove on the field. The Big 12 is wide open, but the winner of this matchup has an easy path to the league title game.
Boise State:As far as good losses go, the Broncos' three-point loss at Oregon earlier this month has merit as long as the Ducks keep winning. Boise State ought win the Mountain West, but a trip to currently undefeated UNLV in several weeks will be decisive. The Broncos are one of the few Group of Five teams still in excellent shape heading into Week 4 despite having lost a bit more.
Memphis:Navigating the AAC won't be easy for the Tigers, but last week's win at Florida State was a necessity to get in the mix as a Group of Five contender. Memphis faces Navy this weekend before Middle Tennessee and then a bye week. That means extra time to prepare for Alex Golesh and USF, a major conference matchup coming up on Oct. 11.
About the extended call
The selection committee will release the first CFP rankings on Nov. 5 and then every Tuesday night through Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP rankings has won the national championship just twice since 2014.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the top four conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive byes to the first round in December. The remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee's judgment.
First-round games on campus begin Dec. 20, and CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites begin Dec. 31. Semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
