As war in Russia escalates, will Ukraine collapse over the Kerch Bridge in Crimea? | Russia-Ukraine war

Russia's war with Ukraine began when Ukraine seized Crimea in February 2014, and who ends up in possession of Crimea remains one of the biggest sticking points in ending the war.

So far, Ukraine has been unable to retake Crimea by force, and Russia has been unable to effectively defend it as a base of operations.

A US general told Al Jazeera that Ukraine is likely to launch a major new campaign to retake Crimea this year and says Washington should fully support it.

“We can be 100 percent clear with the Ukrainians and the Russians that we are 100 percent in favor of them taking back Crimea, no matter how they do it,” said General Ben Hodges.

He added: “Crimea… is a sovereign Ukraine, and the United States will not stop anyone if they tear down the Kerch bridge, which I predict will happen this year.”

Hodges commanded U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and was head of U.S. forces in Europe before retiring.

Why is the Kerch Bridge important?

The Kerch Bridge is Russia's only physical connection to Crimea. It stretches 19 kilometers from the Krasnodar region to the eastern side of the peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin opened it in 2018.

Since Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it has been a vital route for supplying men and material to Russia's southern front.

“Crimea was and remains the base of communication lines on the southern strategic flank of Russian aggression,” wrote then Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi in September 2022 in a written document with the chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, Mykhailo Zabrodskyi.

“The territory of the peninsula allows for the deployment of significant groups of troops and the supply of material resources. Finally, Crimea hosts the main base of the Black Sea Fleet and a network of airfields for conducting air strikes almost throughout the entire depth of the territory of Ukraine,” they wrote.

In more than two years, Ukraine has neutralized these Russian advantages with astonishing success.

Its naval and air-based drones and missiles have repeatedly attacked Sevastopol and Crimea's five main airfields, forcing the Black Sea Fleet to abandon its base and the Russian air force to withdraw its fighter jets to the Russian mainland.

Russia has been transporting air defense systems, but Ukraine has been removing them at such a pace that its air force spokesman recently referred to Crimea as a “graveyard of Russian air defense systems.”

These actions have left Crimea militarily almost useless except as a supply route, and Ukraine has focused on the Kerch Strait as its most vulnerable choke point.

Ukraine revealed how vulnerable the Kerch Bridge itself was by detonating a truck bomb on it in October 2022, collapsing part of its platform into the Sea of ​​Azov.

In July last year, two Ukrainian surface drones disabled the bridge again, forcing Russia to resort to ferries to transport ammunition, fuel and equipment across the Kerch Strait.

But this year, Ukraine destroyed the three large ferries Russia was using, leaving the bridge as Russia's only logistical option.

'An operation with several different phases'

Russia recently sank ships on either side of the main span of the bridge to protect its struts from Ukrainian naval drones. Hodges believes Ukraine is now on the verge of delivering the final blow.

“The Russians know how vulnerable that bridge is, so they've put a lot of effort into air defense. They've sunk ferries on both sides to protect themselves from these unmanned systems,” Hodges said.

“You're not going to destroy it with two or three Storm Shadows or ATACMS or something like that,” he said, referring to British missiles with a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles) and the U.S. military's tactical missile systems with a range of 300 kilometers (185 miles), which Ukraine has.

“A huge amount of explosives will be needed, so this will be a multi-phased operation with different aspects.

“It's not going to be a 'we didn't get it done this week, we'll try again next week' kind of thing. It's going to be a pretty complicated operation,” Hodges added.

Politics can determine the timing.

“I think they'll do it at a time when it literally has the most impact, but also contributes the most to whatever's going on,” Hodges said.

The US presidential election in November is a focal point for both sides.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has opposed sending more military aid to Ukraine and said he would “end the war in a day” if he wins.

Last month, Ukraine staged a successful counter-invasion of Russia in its Kursk region, seizing some 1,300 square kilometers in three weeks — slightly more land than Russia has seized in Ukraine since the beginning of the year.

An operation to bring down the Kerch Bridge during any negotiations Ukraine might be forced to enter would greatly strengthen its position.

Not everyone agrees that a Ukrainian operation against the Kerch bridge is imminent.

“One of the reasons they’re leaving is they need to leave a path for the Russians to evacuate. They’re positioning themselves for that,” said Col. Demetries Andrew Grimes, a special forces commander who was one of the first U.S. officers to go to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014.

He told Al Jazeera that the timing of the operation on the Kerch bridge would depend on whether kyiv believes the majority of Crimea's population would support the return of Ukrainian control.

“If they (Ukraine's armed forces) take the initiative and the Russian masses start to leave, it will be a psychological victory. It will show that Russian civilians have no faith in the Russian military to protect them and maintain control of Crimea,” Grimes said.

That would leave Russia faced with a dilemma: force more military supplies in or allow waves of Russian speakers to leave.

“If there is a massive wave of people trying to leave, it will be difficult for the Russians to try to bring in more weapons supplies.”

In September 2022, Russia held a referendum in Crimea and a large majority voted in favor of its annexation. Much of the international community has rejected that referendum as forced and invalid.

Experts are divided on who is sympathetic to Crimea.

During the fourth summit of the Crimean Platform, a conference launched by kyiv to draw attention to the Crimean issue, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski said Crimea should become neutral during a period of reflection.

“We could transfer it to a UN mandate with a mission to prepare an honest referendum after checking who are legal residents and so on… And we could postpone it for 20 years,” he said, according to Interfax Ukraine.

Associate Professor Eleanor Knott of the London School of Economics conducted qualitative research in pre-war Crimea.

“My research shows that Russia likely did not grant passports to Crimea before the annexation because Crimean residents viewed Russian citizenship as inaccessible, undesirable, illegitimate and illegal,” he said. wrote.

A Ukrainian resistance movement provides updates on the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks in Crimea.

“A notable aspect of the resistance is the involvement of Crimea, an area thought to be under control after years of occupation. Reports indicate that a large number of Crimean women have joined the resistance,” wrote Jade McGlynn of King’s College London in an article on occupied Ukraine last month, titled Crossing Thresholds.

This resistance is said to have poisoned Russian soldiers and sabotaged railways at great risk.

“We will make it absolutely clear that we will force Russia to face reality, namely international law, the power of global solidarity and the need to restore full justice to Ukraine, ultimately, lasting peace for our entire territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the Crimea Platform summit.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a statement this month: “It is clear: Crimea and Sevastopol are Ukraine.”