NFL Week 3 predictions, best bets: Bucs sweep Broncos, Texans-Vikings shootout, back-and-forth matchup
For the second year in a row, we collectively wrote off Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. And for the second year in a row, we’re being made to look pretty stupid. Tampa is off to a 2-0 start and Baker is playing great football. Over his last 10 starts, he leads the league. National Football League (NFL) in touchdown passes (22) and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for most wins (eight, including the postseason).
Tampa’s defense is banged up on the back end, but that shouldn’t be a problem against this Broncos offense, which is having a hard time getting anything done down the field with Bo Nix under center. Denver would love to run the ball, but I don’t think it’ll be as easy as the stats imply. Tampa’s run defense numbers are skewed by the play of Jayden Daniels and a couple of long runs by the Lions. The Broncos need to win via the pass if they want to beat the Bucs.
Nix has attempted 47 passes so far this season, is averaging 5 yards per attempt, has four interceptions and has yet to throw a touchdown. I’m willing to take that risk.
On the offensive side, anyone who thought Dave Canales could create magic is surely feeling wrong at this point, with the Panthers limping to 13 total points and benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. New offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has moved Chris Godwin to the slot more often and he, along with Jaleel McLaughlin, could eat into this matchup with Patrick Surtain II likely following Mike Evans. This is a shrewd spot for Rachaad White as well, with Kenneth Walker III and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren combination having reasonable success against Denver’s run defense.
If the Bucs get a lead, they’ll attack the ball hard and Todd Bowles will attack Nix with all his might as he tries to rally. The Bucs have a quiet win at home so far this season against a rookie quarterback and a questionable offense.
Sign me up for another one.
Pick: Buccaneers (-6.5)
Best Bets Week 2: 0-5
Best bets so far: 2-8
Other best bets
Teaser: Chargers (+7) at Steelers
This game could be a very low-scoring game with two offenses hitting you in the face. The difference between the two teams, though, is the quarterback. Justin Fields has been a wonderful surprise this season, but I’m not sure he’s ready for a Bolts defense that has stopped questionable offenses in Vegas and Carolina so far this season, allowing less than 150 yards per game through the air. Arthur Smith isn’t going to attack vertically, which means the Steelers have to win from the front by pounding the ball. I don’t expect another monster game from J.K. Dobbins, but I wouldn’t rule anything out from the Chargers in the run game with the way their offensive line is playing. Neutralizing the Steelers up front would allow Justin Herbert to throw some shots at potential breakout player Quentin Johnston. This is Jim Nantz and Tony Romo’s game and it should be a good one, but I’d bet the Bolts will find a way to win and certainly stay within a touchdown anyway.
Teaser: 49ers (-1) at Rams
The Niners are in the second of a back-to-back road game here, so it’s not an easy situation, particularly against a division rival. But we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan dominate Sean McVay over the past few years and now it puts the Rams at their most vulnerable. Several Los Angeles offensive linemen went on injured reserve this week and Matthew Stafford will be without his two main weapons, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Deebo Samuel will also be gone, but this is shaping up to be a potential Brandon Aiyuk blowout and George Kittle won’t be easy to handle either. If the Niners get a lead, it will be Jordan Mason’s time against a defense that’s already without Aaron Donald. Giving up the full touchdown is doable, but difficult; I certainly expect the 49ers to find a way to win.
Texans/Vikings Over 46.5
I don’t want to say the Vikings offense is an unstoppable force with Sam Darnold, but as long as Justin Jefferson is on the field, he’s going to put up big numbers. Just kidding, he actually played great football without Jefferson on the field. With Jefferson on the field, Darnold attacked from his own end zone. Houston’s defense profiles as a potentially elite unit, especially with the way Derek Stingley Jr. is playing, but the Vikings’ protection up front and weapons give them enough to answer any score the Texans get up front. And I think there will be plenty against Brian Flores’ hyper-aggressive blitz defense — this year, CJ Stroud is 15-of-19 passing for 151 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions against the blitz. The Texans’ offensive line can hold its own, and Nico Collins/Tank Dell are lethal deep/explosive play weapons in those situations. I expect a pretty sneaky back-and-forth matchup here.
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Lions/Cardinals over 51.5
The Cardinals have already been involved in two high-scoring matchups this season, going back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and beating up the banged-up Rams last week. Detroit’s defense has improved a lot and it may be tough for Arizona to get going in the run game, but Kyler Murray is already playing big-boy football this season and should be able to keep that up against a Lions secondary that is still finding its footing with a lot of new pieces added. It’s hard not to be impressed with Kyler and the weapons he has should be successful against Detroit. Marvin Harrison Jr. was incredible last week and left some yards on the field. Trey McBride’s usage is through the roof and he could be on his way to a breakout game soon. Detroit isn’t afraid to keep up with anyone and Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta give them passing game weapons to get into a shootout.
Panthers (+5.5) at Raiders
GULP. Who doesn’t love a good, old dead cat bounce game? It’s almost literal for this one, with the stinking Carolina Panthers representing the feline mascot. Bryce Young was just benched, which means the entire team 1) should rally around Andy Dalton and 2) knows that no one’s job is safe. The Raiders are playing well, but I don’t think they’ll run away with this game. They were involved in a close, low-scoring first half against the Chargers before Jim Harbaugh’s team pulled away and miraculously swept the Ravens. Dalton will give Carolina a higher floor offensively — it’s impossible to get lower — and I expect the Raiders to try to win this game through the running game almost entirely. That opens the backdoor for the worst-case scenario, the Red-Headed King.
