College football: Best bets, predictions and odds for Week 4: OSU vs Utah, Iowa, Notre Dame, Tennessee and more.
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his Week 4 college football slate that includes a top-15 matchup between Oklahoma State and Utah, plus Iowa at Minnesota and more.
#22 Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota: Over/Under 35.5
Minnesota won 12-10 at Iowa last season to snap an eight-game winning streak in the series for the Hawkeyes. Despite falling behind in Week 2 with a loss to Iowa State, Iowa is the better team and will prove it on Saturday.
The Gophers have Max Brosmer at quarterback this year. Brosmer has a 68.8 completion percentage on 77 throws this year and -5 rushing yards on 22 carries to go along with seven sacks. That's impressive.
Both teams will rely heavily on the field of play and special teams will be a factor. However, I don't think Iowa will be affected much by the road environment and the Hawkeyes will come away with a win.
Iowa has won four straight in Minnesota and the Gophers have scored 17 total points in the last two meetings. Iowa's defense is even better than it has been in the past two or four seasons. My best bet is the Hawkeyes in the Major Leagues at -135.
Choose: Iowa ML (2u)
*Quotes courtesy of MGM bet
Nico Iamaleava surpasses 248.5 passing yards against Oklahoma
The game between No. 6 Tennessee and No. 15 Oklahoma will be one of the most heavily bet on Saturday's busy Week 4 schedule, but the best bet on this game centers on a punter's wager on Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
Iamaleava hasn't even been unleashed yet this season despite racking up 698 passing yards, 6 TDs and 2 INTs, the 22nd-best QBR (80.7) and a 71.6 completion percentage to go along with the number one scoring offense in the country at 63.6 points per game.
Critics will say that two of the three games were against Chattanooga and Kent State, but what about #23 ranked NC State (211 passing yards, 3 total TDs)? This may be the outing where Iamaleava gets thrown into the fire and his 248.5 bet should look closer to 275 since they haven't been in a competitive game yet.
I bet Iamaleava would top 248.5 passing yards at -114 odds and go as high as 265 for the rookie quarterback. I calculated his passing touchdowns at 3 or more (+255) and 4 or more (+1100) at Bet The Edge.
Choose: Nico Iamaleava Over 248.5 passing yards (1u)
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#12 Utah (-2.5) vs. #14 Oklahoma State: Over/Under 54.0
Both Utah and Oklahoma State are 3-0 and the winner of this game will be one of the favorites in the Big 12 to make the College Football Playoff. However, that is not the story of the game. The story is the more than likely return of quarterback Cam Rising to Utah, according to wide receiver Dorian Singer.
Utah will have to come back on the road, as Stillwater, Oklahoma, is not an easy place to play. The Cowboys are 25-3 at Boone Pickens Stadium since the start of the 2020 season.
Even though both quarterbacks are a combined 49 years old, I think the difference in this game will be the Cowboys' Ollie Gordon (260 total yards, 4 TDs), who is arguably the best running back in the country.
Gordon finished last season with more than 100 yards passing in eight of his final 10 games, and while Utah has one of the best run defenses in the country, a running back like him could be the difference.
Oklahoma State is 10-4 against top 25 teams when ranked and 5-0 all-time when ranked in the top 15 at home and facing another top 15 team. Give me the Cowboys +2.5 at -110 and the ML at +115. I also have Gordon ranked at 2+ TDs (+285) and 3+ TDs (+1000).
Update: This game changed to Oklahoma State -2 or -2.5 and if that holds, the bet is on the Cowboys ML up to -140.
Choose: Oklahoma State +2.5 (1u), Oklahoma State ML (0.5u)
*Quotes courtesy of MGM bet
Miami (OH) at #17 Notre Dame: O/U 44.0
Notre Dame is coming off a 66-7 thrashing of Purdue in a game where the spread dropped from -10.5 to -6.5 in favor of the Irish.
Notre Dame's defense was held scoreless at Purdue after being humiliated in a 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish's woes appear to be solved for the moment and they have another positive matchup with the Miami RedHawks.
Miami's offense has struggled, with 22 total points in two games against Northwestern (13-6) and Cincinnati (27-16). Miami lost both games and couldn't do much in the first half, with a total of six first-half points in two games, thanks to two field goals.
Notre Dame didn't let Purdue score in the first half last week and Texas A&M managed just six points on two field goals in Week 1. Northern Illinois had 13 points in the first half with an 83-yard touchdown and two field goals, but that can be considered an outlier because they scored three points the rest of the way and somehow won.
I picked the Miami (OH) first half team total under 2.5 at +140 odds as my best bet for this matchup. I would go down to under 0.5 as they are basically the same bet. You can pick the first half under 3.5 at -150 odds on FanDuel to get the 3.5 payout.
Choose: Miami (OH) First Half Team Total Under 2.5 (1u)
Season record: 14-21 (40%) -11.63 units
Last week: 6-4 (60%) +0.56 units
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