2025 WNBA Draft Lottery Odds: Why the Dallas Wings have the best chance of landing next year's No. 1 pick

Now that the regular season has come to a close, it’s officially time for lottery-bound teams to turn their attention to next year. That process will begin with the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery, which is scheduled for sometime later this year. With UConn guard Paige Bueckers expected to be the first overall pick, this will be a high-stakes lottery.

The four teams in contention this year are the Los Angeles Sparks, Chicago Sky, Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics. But only three of them can claim the No. 1 pick. The Sky owe the Wings a first-round pick swap this year via the Marina Mabrey trade, so if they win the lottery, the No. 1 pick will go to the Wings.

Because of that trade, the Wings will get the first pick if they or the Sky win the lottery. Thanks to the combined odds of that happening (45.4%), they actually have a slightly higher chance of picking first than the Sparks (44.2%). The last time Dallas had the first pick was in 2021, when the team selected Charli Collier out of Texas.

As a reminder, the WNBA calculates lottery odds based on combined records from the past two seasons. Below is a look at the lottery teams and their individual chances of winning the first overall pick.

Note: The Wings and Sky finished with identical 31-49 records over the past two seasons, but the Wings get the second-best odds. through the tiebreakerwhich is the worst record in the “immediately preceding season.” The Wings finished with a 9-31 record this season, while the Sky had a 13-27 record.

The Sparks are making their fourth straight lottery appearance, which is the longest streak in franchise history. They built a solid foundation for the latest iteration of this rebuild by selecting Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson in this year's draft lottery, but Brink tore his ACL in June and missed most of the season. They could really use a lead point guard to pair those two, and Bueckers would be a perfect fit.

No team has had worse luck than the Wings this season. A major injury crisis before the Olympic break left them without Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and Maddy Siegrist for an extended period, and they never recovered. The long summer will be worth it if they end up with the No. 1 pick, though. Only three players on the roster have guaranteed money for next season, and they could be on the cusp of having to reset. Bueckers would be a great place to start.

A promising start to the season for the Sky quickly turned bleak after the Olympic break due to transfers and injuries. In Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso and Chennedy Carter they have some exciting young players, but management has a lot of work to do to build a successful team around them. Bueckers would have been a great option, but short-sighted moves by the previous regime have kept that from being a possibility. Still, another lottery pick will help.

Perhaps no team could benefit more from a true star rookie than the Mystics, who have been somewhat hampered by injuries and untimely departures in recent years. They have a number of very solid, hard-working role players and some intriguing youngsters, but Bueckers would offer a solid foundation for the future. Unfortunately for them, they have just a 10.4% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.

The 2025 WNBA Draft won’t be able to match this year’s class in terms of star power or depth, but it’s not a one-player draft, either. There are several intriguing players besides Bueckers, including USC’s Kiki Iriafen, LSU’s Aneesah Morrow, Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles and Buecker’s college teammate Azzi Fudd.