Below is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, You can subscribe for free here.
Hey, let’s look at the production so far of consensus first-round picks in fantasy football drafts…
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Christian McCaffrey, IR, probably a doomed pick, very likely to miss six weeks or more. Phew!
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Tyreek Hill, WR17, is still excellent, but his quarterback is injured and has no timetable for his return.
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CeeDee Lamb, WR16, this man’s team just got crushed by the Saints, but otherwise we feel good.
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Breece Hall, RB6, picked up exactly where he left off last season, though he may have a little trouble with Braelon Allen. Good draft pick.
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Bijan Robinson, RB16, his team has its flaws and his QB is a bit shaky, but he looks great. Good pick. At some point, a touchdown would be appreciated.
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Ja’Marr Chase, WR41, has been targeted 11 times in two games and his most impactful play was getting called for a 15-yard personal foul.
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Justin Jefferson, WR4, everything was going great until he suffered a quad injury on Sunday.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR27, had a great game and a disastrous game, and now he’s dealing with a leg injury of unspecified nature.
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Jonathan Taylor, RB23, is running well, but his QB is the goal-line runner and the team isn’t interested in throwing the ball to him.
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AJ Brown, WR32, injured his hamstring in practice last week, was unavailable Monday night and He is likely to miss Week 3.
*GASP*
That’s a minefield. A truly terrible first round. Only one player with a top-10 ADP is currently a top-five scorer at his position, and that guy is dealing with an injury. Yikes!
Scouts can be legitimately pleased with CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson (who looks like the best player on the field every time he plays) and we should consider Ja’Marr Chase a very cheap buy. Plus, if Justin Jefferson has avoided serious injuries, he’s a winner, too.
But the rest of that round is, um… wow. It’s tough.
Of course, in a season without a clear first-round contender, we’re all in a slightly different version of the same rickety boat. This could mean that 2024 is shaping up to be a season dominated by surprise players and sneaky waiver-clearing gems. If that’s the case, it’ll be a big year for the truly obsessive hardcore gamers among us.
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Now, let’s look at what’s working…
Every fantasy season is, in its own way, weird, crazy, and unprecedented. Now we find ourselves in a year where there were no clear, right answers in the first round, which doesn’t happen often. Even with the chaos, we must play the cards we’re dealt.
Let’s take a look at the unexpected names currently leading the scoreboard in the big three positions, along with a number that explains and supports their success:
QB1, Baker Mayfield:73.5% completion percentage: Baker has been struggling. He opened the season with a 24-for-30 performance against Washington, then followed that up with a 12-for-19 showing at Detroit, a game in which he was constantly harassed. After two games, this is the best version of Mayfield we’ve seen so far. He’s never completed 65% of his attempts in any season, but he can’t miss these days.
Of course, completion percentage doesn’t tell the full story of a quarterback’s accuracy. Here’s another stat that helps tell the story of Mayfield’s first two games: 7.7 yards after the catch per completion. When a quarterback is extremely accurate with his ball placement, completion percentage usually follows. Mayfield is currently beating his single-season best completion percentage by a full two yards. It’s been truly fantastic.
RB1, Alvin Kamara:6 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line: Kamara currently leads the NFL in touchdowns (5), four of which have been scored from inside the 12-yard line. He’s tied for the league lead in rushes inside the 10-yard line and is second in rushes inside the 5 (4). It should be noted that Taysom Hill has yet to get a carry anywhere in the red zone. For the first time in a long time, the Saints are simply feeding the team’s best ball carrier in scoring-by-pass situations and — surprise! — it’s working out spectacularly.
WR1, Chris Godwin: 58.2% Slot Percentage: Godwin actually ran 78.3% of his routes from the slot in Detroit per PFF, and it was clearly a winning approach. In his best seasons, he operated as Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver, but last year he was pushed to the wing and finished as the WR33 overall. It’s no coincidence that he’s finding success again in a familiar role. Plus, the Bucs have emphatically shown that slot routes don’t necessarily have to be short-range, chain-moving runs — big plays are possible.
