Sleepers. Busts.
Identify one and avoid the other as if your fantasy season depends on it. Because it might. Successfully scouting underrated talent, while avoiding players who end up underperforming, is a formula that is sure to pay off in fantasy throughout the campaign.
The trick, of course, is determining who falls into each opposing category before the season, taking into account skills, opportunity, health, past tendencies and where each player currently is in his NHL career trajectory.
Things are relative, of course. Is Sam Reinhart a failure if he scores “only” 40 goals instead of 57 this season? Not if you draft him based on team expectations. get 40, and another 30 or so assists.
The same applies to sleepers. If you go after under-the-radar players too early in the draft, you lose the advantage of landing such a hidden gem. Timing is key.
From that standpoint, here are a few players who could be considered as potential late-round draft acquisitions, or even as free agents once the season begins. Additionally, there is a small group of players who could be disappointing their managers in relation to where they might be selected in the respective drafts.
Resources: Projections | Mock draft | Goalkeeping depth chart | Most added/removed
Sleepers
Viktor Arvidsson, F, Edmonton Oilers (No. 116 forward)
I wonder how many players I wouldn't do it Agreeing to leave the more comfortable climate of Southern California for a cooler winter in Alberta in exchange for the chance to play on a line with elite center Leon Draisaitl. That’s probably not a very high figure. Arvidsson has certainly shown enough enthusiasm, having signed a two-year, $8 million deal for that opportunity. One of the most underrated forwards in the game overall, the 31-year-old could reach new productive heights in this new job. A 70-point campaign seems within reach. He scored 59 in 77 games with the Kings just two years ago. I’m also quite interested to see what veteran Jeff Skinner can accomplish, if he stays on a line with Connor McDavid. Keep an eye on that relationship, too.
Jake DeBrusk, forward, Vancouver Canucks (forward #146)
If he can maintain a scoring line with top-tier center Elias Pettersson, the former Bruin could put up 40 goals on 200-plus shots this year. Which would be pretty impressive for a skater ranked 146th at his position heading into 2024-25. DeBrusk is one of my favorite late-round, or even post-draft, picks this fall. That is, as long as he emerges from camp in a top-six role alongside Pettersson or JT Miller, as anticipated.
Tommy Novak, Nashville Predators (forward #180)
If he ends up centering a scoring line between Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as many expect, Novak should easily surpass the 65-point mark. It's not a far-fetched prediction, considering the 27-year-old averaged 0.63 points per game competing with Predators like Luke Evangelista, Kiefer Sherwood and Mark Jankowski last season. Good Players – Evangelista has a lot of potential – but No Stamkos and/or Marchessault.
Morgan Frost, forward, Philadelphia Flyers (#188)
The warm-up is over. In the final year of his current contract, the 25-year-old needs to establish himself as a bona fide top-six NHL centre. A full season between Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett (or perhaps even up-and-coming Matvei Michkov) on equal terms and on the No. 1 power play should help in that regard. Frost has certainly shown flashes. And John Tortorella won’t tolerate much less. There’s only so many private meetings a head coach and player can have. Watch the still-young centre take a big leap, starting this fall.
Anthony Duclair, forward, New York Islanders (forward #216)
Don’t be too surprised if Duclair ends up being the Islanders’ leading scorer by the end of the season. After signing a four-year deal, he’s projected to skate on New York’s first line — and quite possibly, on its No. 1 power-play unit. Having spent his junior years with the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL, he knows what coach Patrick Roy is all about (and vice versa). When he’s on a roll, the 29-year-old journeyman is a dynamic goal-scoring threat. Just be patient when Duclair’s production dips for a while. The high-ceiling winger tends to perform at a more extreme level than most.
Kirby Dach, forward, Montreal Canadiens (forward #258)
First, he needs to stay healthy. A concern after the third overall draft pick (2019) missed all but two games last season with a knee injury. Then, his likely new linemate, Patrik Laine, also needs to stay fit and focus on performing to the best of his abilities. But if all goes as well as coach Martin St. Louis dreams, both the 23-year-old centre and the former 44-goal scorer could be big performers in Montreal this season. Which would make Dach a hidden gem in the deepest of fantasy leagues.
Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers (#74 defenseman)
While it may seem a bit odd to slap the “sleeper player” label on a former prolific fantasy player after last year’s injury-plagued slump (four goals and 14 assists), here we are. Thankfully, his solid performance during the Panthers’ successful Cup run suggests that his nagging shoulder, along with other late-season physical issues, are no longer bothering him. Oh, and with Brandon Montour’s departure to Seattle, the veteran is projected to once again anchor Florida’s top power play. A significant fantasy deal, indeed. The real-life No. 1 draft pick (2014) would serve just fine as a No. 3 or 4 defender on teams in reasonably sized fantasy leagues. He deserves a considerably higher ranking than No. 74.
Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings (goalie #29)
Kuemper is a good goalie coming off a down year. Now that he's back in Los Angeles, where he had a brief stint in 2017-18, the former Capitals man is ready to right his own ship as a goaltender. Playing for a team with a more solid defense will help him. A lot. The 34-year-old should also see plenty of action, with David Rittich serving as the Kings' No. 2.
See also:
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JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres
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Quinton Byfield, forward, Los Angeles Kings
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Gabriel Vilardi, F, Winnipeg Jets
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William Eklund, forward, San Jose Sharks
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Leo Carlsson, F, Anaheim Ducks
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Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames
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Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs
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Busts
Frank Vatrano, forward, Anaheim Ducks (forward #27)
Prior to last season’s explosion of 37 goals (13.6 S%) and 23 assists, the 30-year-old had not tallied more than 41 points in a full campaign — not with the Bruins, Panthers or even the Ducks last season. (His 2021-22 experience with the Rangers was too brief to properly evaluate.) With prospect Cutter Gauthier on board and second-year player Leo Carlsson expected to take a significant step forward, Vatrano projects to skate on an Anaheim secondary power play this go-round. It’ll be difficult for him to repeat the unprecedentedly productive showing from a year ago, particularly with the additional skater.
MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames (No. 10 defenseman)
I'm a big MacKenzie Weegar fan, but expecting another 52-point season, including 15 with the extra skater, seems like too much to ask. A top-10 fantasy defenseman? Even in leagues that reward physical play, that seems like a substantial stretch.
Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators (goalie #6)
The former Bruin's move to Ottawa is quite concerning to me. While they're headed in the right direction, the Senators still aren't on the same plane as Boston, particularly on defense. Ullmark is undoubtedly going to play a lot and steal some. He's also going to endure some much tougher outings, which will give his coaches negative integers in standard ESPN leagues.
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