Patrick Everson
FOX Sportsbook Analyst
There are some big games on the college football Week 4 odds board.
But there’s one matchup that certainly stands out more to oddsmakers and bettors: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma.
“So far, that’s probably going to be our biggest decision,” Caesars Sports director of football operations Joey Feazel said. “There’s a lot of action in Tennessee, along with the Over.”
Bookmakers and expert bettors offer their insights on Tennessee-Oklahoma and more in this week’s college football betting data.
They are all vols
Midweek, No. 6 Tennessee was listed as a 7-point road favorite for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET game against No. 15 Oklahoma. That’s where Caesars Sports opened the game against the Vols on Sunday afternoon, and the line has climbed to -7.5 a couple of times.
Both teams are 3-0 in head-to-head (SU) games, while Tennessee is also 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and Oklahoma is 2-1 ATS. But the Sooners haven’t looked as good.
“Oklahoma’s performance has left a lot to be desired, and Tennessee has no trouble scoring against anyone,” Feazel said, noting the Vols have racked up 51 points or more in all three games.
Admittedly, blowout home wins over Chattanooga and Kent State don’t mean much, but the Vols played on the road in Week 2 as 8-point favorites and routed North Carolina State 51-10.
Oddsmakers are impressed with Heisman candidate quarterback Nico Iamaleava and the Vols.
“It’s a very action-packed game and very biased in favor of the Volunteers,” Feazel said.
College football shines on FOX
This week’s home opener on FOX will be between Marshall and Ohio State, the No. 3 seed. There’s sure to be a great atmosphere at the Horseshoe, as always. But the Buckeyes are the heavy favorites, with 40 points.
However, FOX has an interesting matchup on Friday night at 8 p.m. ET. No. 24 Illinois visits No. 22 Nebraska, with both teams sitting at 3-0 SU. The Huskers also have a 3-0 ATS record, while Illinois has a 2-1 ATS record.
“This is the game I’m really looking forward to,” Feazel said, noting that Nebraska might finally live up to expectations. “Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola have been making waves in the first few weeks. This is a more potent Nebraska offense than we’ve seen in years.
“But Illinois plays very tough defense. The line movement has been in Illinois’ direction, even though Nebraska is a public team.”
Caesars Sports opened Nebraska at -9 and briefly touched -9.5/-10 on Tuesday morning. But by Tuesday afternoon, the line dropped to -7.5, with stops at -9/-8.5 on the way.
“Does the line go through 7? Probably not, (because) the crowd supports Nebraska.”
CFB Week 4 Best Bets: Tennessee at Oklahoma, LSU vs. UCLA
Sharp side on campus
College Football Betting Expert Paul’s Stone He participates in two games, supporting teams from the same state: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
As noted above, the Sooners will host Tennessee in Oklahoma’s SEC opener. The Vols are 7-point favorites, but Stone noted that over the summer, the Sooners were as high as -4.5 at some sportsbooks.
“Tennessee’s performance in the three games has been eye-catching, to put it mildly,” Stone said. “But this is Oklahoma’s first game in the Southeastern Conference, and the Sooners are expected to get back several key players who have been out with injuries.
“I think the Sooners will be competitive and stay within a touchdown.”
Among those expected to return to Oklahoma are wide receiver Nic Anderson and center Branson Hickman.
Meanwhile, 81 miles away in Stillwater, No. 14 Oklahoma State hosts No. 12 Utah at 4 p.m. ET on FOX. The point spread has been all over the place this week, based on speculation about whether Utah quarterback Cam Rising would play.
Rising has a thumb injury and missed the Utes’ 38-21 Week 3 road win over Utah State. But there were reports earlier this week that Rising would start against the Cowboys.
So a line that opened with Oklahoma State -2 and went all the way to Cowboys -3 ended up going all the way to Utah -2.5. But on Wednesday night, despite no official word on Rising, the line jumped the fence again and went all the way to Cowboys -2.5.
CFB Week 4 Super Six: Utah at Oklahoma State
There are reports that the Rising are practicing this week, but Stone noted that Utah coach Kyle Whittingham does not release information about player availability.
Stone expects Rising to play, but wonders if the injured thumb could affect the QB’s effectiveness. Still, Stone got almost the best of the number by taking Oklahoma State +2.5.
Stone noted that since the 2016 season, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog, winning outright in each of the eight covers.
“Boone Pickens Stadium is one of the loudest environments in college football,” Stone said. “If Utah stacks the ball to stop (running back) Ollie Gordon, then Alan Bowman and a host of capable receivers led by Brennan Presley will get it done through the air.
“I think Oklahoma State ruins Utah’s Big 12 debut and wins outright.”
More on Utah and Oklahoma State
Feazel and the Caesars Sports risk room are also paying close attention to the Utah-Oklahoma State game. The Cowboys opened at -2.5 and got to -3 earlier this week, but on Tuesday morning at Caesars, the number changed to -2.5 for the Utes.
On Wednesday night, Caesars joined others and went for Cowboys -2.5.
“It’s a surprise to see how much early action there is on Utah’s side, especially since Oklahoma State is one of those teams that the public likes to get behind,” Feazel said.
That early action likely hinged on Rising being in the mix on Saturday night. Stay tuned for Rising’s status here.
USC vs. Michigan: Joel Klatt and Matt Leinart break down the Big Ten matchup
Michigan advances
Michigan (2-1 SU/0-3 ATS) has already taken a beating on its home court. The Wolverines lost to Texas 31-12 in Week 2. After an unimpressive 28-18 win over Arkansas State in Week 3, Michigan coach Sherrone Moore decided a change was necessary.
So, Alex Orji will start at QB this week, replacing David Warren, which Feazel doesn’t take as a good sign.
“The saying goes, ‘If you have two quarterbacks, then you have none,'” he said. “This is another game that draws a lot of one-sided action at USC. There’s also underpriced money, which isn’t a surprise considering how Michigan is going to want to play this game. Underpriced is the more accurate side.”
Southern Cal opened as a 6.5-point road favorite and dropped to -5.5 by midweek. The total opened at 45.5 and initially rose to 46.5, then fell back to 44.5.
I like big bets and I can’t lie
As Saturday approaches, more big bets are piling up at sportsbooks across the country. But Caesars has seen some big plays in the Week 4 college football odds market.
The largest bet is a $15,000 bet on Army at -235 against Rice. If the Black Knights, who are favored by 6 points on the spread, win the game regardless of the score, the bettor earns a profit of $6,383 ($21,383 total payout).
Other notable works by Caesars:
- $12,000 on Tennessee -7.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma. Potential profit $10,434.78 (total payout $22,434.78)
- $5,500 on Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois. Potential profit of $5,000 ($10,500 total payout)
- $5,500 on USC -5.5 vs. Michigan. Potential profit of $5,000 ($10,500 total payout)
It’s certainly fun to follow the big bets, but remember to keep them at a reasonable level. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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