Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri gives his tips for victory in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
Pick-up-and-Play of the week is… Jauan Jennings
Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a few weeks for the 49ers. San Francisco will also be without Christian McCaffrey and rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall, who is unavailable due to a gunshot wound he is recovering from. George Kittle's status for Week 3 also appears uncertain, as he was listed on Thursday's injury report with a hamstring injury.
That leaves the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings as the only two locks in the passing game. Jennings is one of the best run-blocking receivers in the NFL, but he's also been a productive player when given opportunities in the passing game.
Jennings played more than 50% of the 49ers' snaps in six games last season. He scored 10 or more fantasy points in four of those six contests. You can pick him and play him this week against the Rams' secondary, which is ranked 24th by PFF.
The most uncertain moment of the week belongs to… Mike Evans vs. DEN
Evans is off to a solid start in his 11th NFL season. Through two games, Evans has converted 23% of his passes into eight receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He has worked primarily on the outside, running 70% of his routes on the sidelines according to PFF.
It's important to highlight this usage on the outside because he'll be facing Patrick Surtain this week. Surtain has played 89% of his snaps on the outside through two weeks. So far this season, Surtain has allowed six receptions for 70 yards in coverage. He's been able to stop both DK Metcalf and George Pickens. This is a tough position for Evans.
An interesting trend: Lions vs. slot receivers
The Lions have been giving up ground to opposing slot receivers so far this season. They've allowed 22 slot receptions for 250-plus yards through two weeks, according to PFF. Last week, Chris Godwin caught six of seven slot passes for 100-plus yards and a touchdown.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Prediction in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube either wherever you listen.
We can't draw any conclusions yet since it's only been two weeks against good receivers like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, but it's a trend worth keeping an eye on. In Week 3, the Lions play Cardinals slot receiver Greg Dortch. I don't expect much from Dortch, but in Week 4, he'll face Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb in Week 5. Those will be key matchups to keep an eye on.
The best RB position of the week belongs to… Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CIN
Robinson's role has been solid to start the season. He has played 59% of the Commanders' snaps and has gotten 74% of the carries in the backfield. In Week 2, Robinson totaled 136 yards on 18 touches. He broke five tackles in this game and currently ranks in the top 10 for the season in broken tackles, according to Player Profiler.
These broken tackle stats are important for their matchup this week. Robinson will be facing the Bengals, who have allowed 160 rushing yards per game this season. But more importantly, the Bengals have struggled to tackle, allowing the sixth-most yards after contact this season according to NFL Pro. Even though Washington is a big underdog, efficient play is expected from Robinson.
Chris Godwin is on the rise
Godwin is the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football right now. Through two games, he has hauled in 15 receptions for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He's already matched his touchdown total from last season.
We were promised that Godwin would use the slot more this year and we've been delivering. Godwin has played 65% of his snaps from the slot this year. According to Dwain McFarlandThat number was just 32% in 2023. Godwin has turned this increase in slot usage into 10 slot receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin leads the NFL in each of these slot categories.
You might be tempted to sell him for a high price now, and that's not a bad idea. But I would recommend holding on to Godwin unless you can get a Tier 1 player like Ja'Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley in return.
James Cook is in fashion
Cook finished in the top three fantasy backs in Week 2 after scoring three touchdowns on Thursday night against the Dolphins. Cook only played 47% of the snaps in this game, but this needs more context. The Bills pulled Cook for the final two series of the game due to the blowout. If we take out these garbage time series, Cook would have handled an elite 79% of carries in the backfield.
Since game coordinator Joe Brady took over in November 2023, Cook has averaged 19.5 touches and 16.5 fantasy points per game. Both numbers would rank him among the top 10 running backs from last year. Through two weeks, Cook has produced games of 103 yards and 95 yards on 17 touches per game. He's on the rise and will be a top-10 running back for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Jerome Ford is trending downwards
In Week 1, Ford commanded 73% of the Browns’ snaps and 86% of the carries in the backfield. This led to a solid fantasy day of 15.9 points on 18 touches. Everything looked good for Ford, including his Week 2 matchup against a Jaguars team that struggled with tackling in its first game.
But Week 2 was the worst-case scenario for Ford. His snaps dropped to 42%, and he saw just 26% of the carries in the backfield. Veteran D'Onta Foreman led the backfield with 14 carries on 38% of the snaps. This was surprising since Foreman saw just one snap in Week 1. However, he suffered a neck injury in training camp and may not have been ready for a bigger role at the start of the season.
The good news for Ford is that he played the most snaps at running back for the Browns in Week 2 and averaged over nine yards per carry. He's a talented back, but if Foreman is going to be so involved going forward, it's going to be tough to start Ford in fantasy.
Brock Bowers is the new elite fantasy TE
He already looks like one of the best TEs in the league. Bowers was the best TE in college football at the SEC's highest level for the past three years. He was an elite player at reading defenses and gaining yards after the catch.
Bowers currently leads all fantasy TEs in points, EPA per play, and targets. His 25% target share is impressive, especially since he competes with Davante Adams for targets. But perhaps more impressive is that Bowers has had so much success while running just 70% of the team’s routes.
I'm not sure how defenses can stop what he's doing because Bowers lines up everywhere. Defenses can't put their best player on him like it's a receiver vs. cornerback matchup. Bowers moves off the line of scrimmage and slides into the slot 50% of the time while also moving to the outside 15% of the time. He's extremely versatile and as legit as can be. Bowers is a top five TE for the rest of the season for me.
The minimum purchase price of the week is… Diontae Johnson
I'm back to rooting for Diontae Johnson now that second-year quarterback Bryce Young has just been benched. I firmly believe that Young was the main problem with this Panthers offense. It wasn't the wide receivers, and it certainly wasn't the offensive line, which is ranked fifth in pass protection through two games according to PFF.
In Week 2, the Panthers lost three plays on 55% of their drives and only one lasted more than six plays. The worst part? Bryce Young got time to throw in this game. But we have an adult in the room now, quarterback Andy Dalton, and he looked good the last few times we saw him as a starter for the Panthers and Saints.
But perhaps more importantly, he knows how to run an NFL offense. It's worth pondering: Is Dalton the best quarterback Johnson has played with in the last 4 or 5 years? It seems like a crazy question, but I think the answer is yes. I also think he's very good at getting open and winning targets.
I may be a sicko, but I'm buying Johnson stock on the cheap right now.
The highest selling price of the week is… JK Dobbins
Dobbins has racked up over 130 rushing yards in each of his first two games. He currently leads the NFL with 266 rushing yards, and he's not stopping there, as Dobbins ranks No. 1 in rushing EPA and is eighth in success rate according to NFL Pro.
It's clear he's been great, I can't argue with that. The only problem, though, is that he's only seen six opportunities to cheat in two weeks. The fantasy codes for running backs are targets and touches in the red zone. Dobbins isn't being used much in these areas, which doesn't bode well for future success.
Dobbins is currently a highly-valued player who likely won’t finish the season as the RB1 in fantasy. Right now, Dobbins is still sharing the backfield with Gus Edwards, and even if that doesn’t continue, Dobbins’ value is likely the highest it will be all year. Why you ask? Well, he’s facing the Steelers defense in Week 3.
Sell Dobbins high for someone like Chris Olave if you can.
